Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26 January–1 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 28.4% | 26.6–30.3% | 26.1–30.8% | 25.7–31.3% | 24.9–32.2% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 16.4% | 15.0–18.0% | 14.6–18.4% | 14.2–18.8% | 13.6–19.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.8% | 10.9–16.5% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.3% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 33 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 18 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–9 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 8% | 96% | |
| 31 | 16% | 88% | |
| 32 | 20% | 72% | |
| 33 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 34% | Last Result |
| 35 | 11% | 19% | |
| 36 | 6% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 14% | 91% | |
| 17 | 24% | 77% | |
| 18 | 26% | 53% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 27% | |
| 20 | 13% | 16% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 11% | 97% | |
| 15 | 22% | 85% | |
| 16 | 28% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 21% | 36% | |
| 18 | 11% | 15% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 8% | 98% | |
| 13 | 22% | 90% | |
| 14 | 31% | 67% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 37% | |
| 16 | 12% | 16% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 15% | 99.0% | |
| 6 | 36% | 84% | Median |
| 7 | 35% | 49% | |
| 8 | 12% | 14% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 32% | |
| 3 | 0% | 32% | |
| 4 | 9% | 32% | |
| 5 | 21% | 22% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 67 | 100% | 63–69 | 62–70 | 62–71 | 60–72 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 50 | 48% | 48–53 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 45–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 50 | 47% | 47–53 | 47–54 | 46–54 | 45–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 49 | 22% | 46–52 | 45–52 | 44–53 | 43–54 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–45 | 35–46 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 39 | 0% | 36–42 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–40 | 30–41 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 34 | 0% | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 26 | 0% | 23–29 | 22–29 | 21–30 | 20–31 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 24 | 0% | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 20–29 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 22 | 0% | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 17–27 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 8% | 94% | |
| 64 | 8% | 86% | |
| 65 | 13% | 78% | |
| 66 | 14% | 65% | |
| 67 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 68 | 14% | 34% | |
| 69 | 11% | 20% | |
| 70 | 6% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 47 | 6% | 97% | |
| 48 | 13% | 91% | |
| 49 | 14% | 78% | |
| 50 | 17% | 65% | |
| 51 | 18% | 48% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 13% | 30% | |
| 53 | 9% | 18% | |
| 54 | 6% | 9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 8% | 96% | |
| 48 | 10% | 88% | |
| 49 | 20% | 79% | Median |
| 50 | 12% | 59% | |
| 51 | 18% | 47% | Majority |
| 52 | 12% | 29% | |
| 53 | 11% | 17% | |
| 54 | 4% | 6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 4% | 97% | |
| 46 | 10% | 94% | |
| 47 | 13% | 84% | |
| 48 | 16% | 71% | |
| 49 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 33% | |
| 51 | 9% | 22% | Majority |
| 52 | 9% | 13% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 54 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 92% | |
| 39 | 13% | 81% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 68% | |
| 41 | 17% | 55% | |
| 42 | 15% | 37% | |
| 43 | 12% | 23% | |
| 44 | 7% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 5% | 96% | |
| 38 | 11% | 92% | |
| 39 | 13% | 81% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 68% | |
| 41 | 17% | 55% | |
| 42 | 15% | 37% | |
| 43 | 12% | 23% | |
| 44 | 7% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 7% | 96% | |
| 37 | 12% | 90% | |
| 38 | 17% | 78% | |
| 39 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 40 | 14% | 43% | |
| 41 | 14% | 29% | |
| 42 | 8% | 14% | |
| 43 | 3% | 6% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 7% | 94% | |
| 33 | 13% | 88% | |
| 34 | 15% | 75% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 60% | |
| 36 | 13% | 44% | |
| 37 | 16% | 31% | |
| 38 | 7% | 15% | |
| 39 | 5% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 13% | 88% | |
| 33 | 15% | 74% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 60% | |
| 35 | 15% | 46% | |
| 36 | 13% | 30% | |
| 37 | 8% | 17% | |
| 38 | 5% | 9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 8% | 94% | |
| 32 | 16% | 86% | |
| 33 | 18% | 70% | |
| 34 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 35 | 14% | 34% | |
| 36 | 10% | 19% | |
| 37 | 5% | 9% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 5% | 97% | |
| 23 | 11% | 92% | |
| 24 | 13% | 81% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 68% | |
| 26 | 14% | 50% | |
| 27 | 14% | 36% | |
| 28 | 9% | 22% | |
| 29 | 8% | 13% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 5% | 98% | |
| 22 | 11% | 93% | |
| 23 | 20% | 82% | |
| 24 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 25 | 20% | 42% | |
| 26 | 12% | 22% | |
| 27 | 7% | 10% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 7% | 96% | |
| 21 | 18% | 89% | |
| 22 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 47% | |
| 24 | 18% | 28% | |
| 25 | 7% | 10% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 26 January–1 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%