Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.6% 32.7–36.6% 32.2–37.1% 31.7–37.6% 30.8–38.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.1–21.2% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.3–14.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–25 19–26 18–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–25
Eesti 200 0 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
35 2% 99.4%  
36 5% 97%  
37 12% 93%  
38 14% 81%  
39 16% 67%  
40 16% 51% Median
41 16% 35%  
42 12% 19%  
43 5% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.9%  
19 4% 98.8%  
20 10% 95%  
21 18% 84%  
22 26% 66% Median
23 19% 40%  
24 13% 21%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 3% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.4%  
18 10% 96%  
19 21% 86% Last Result
20 25% 65% Median
21 21% 40%  
22 12% 20%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 4% 99.7%  
10 16% 96%  
11 31% 80% Median
12 28% 49%  
13 15% 22%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.2% 1.3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 7% 93%  
5 43% 86% Median
6 33% 43%  
7 9% 10%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 21% 53% Median
5 27% 31%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 79–85 78–86 77–87 76–90
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 62–68 61–69 60–69 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 60 100% 57–63 56–64 55–65 54–67
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 10% 44–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 47 9% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.4% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 30 0% 27–33 25–34 24–34 22–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 21–28 21–28 20–29 19–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 19–26 19–26 18–27 17–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.9%  
77 3% 99.3%  
78 5% 97%  
79 8% 92% Last Result
80 17% 83%  
81 13% 66%  
82 13% 53% Median
83 12% 40%  
84 14% 28%  
85 7% 14%  
86 3% 7%  
87 1.3% 4%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.7%  
60 3% 98.8%  
61 4% 96%  
62 7% 92%  
63 14% 85%  
64 14% 70%  
65 17% 57% Last Result, Median
66 16% 40%  
67 12% 24%  
68 7% 13%  
69 4% 6%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.1% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.6%  
58 5% 96%  
59 11% 91%  
60 14% 80% Last Result
61 15% 66%  
62 13% 51% Median
63 12% 38%  
64 11% 25%  
65 8% 14%  
66 4% 6%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 0.9% 99.7%  
55 3% 98.8%  
56 4% 96%  
57 7% 92%  
58 14% 85%  
59 17% 70%  
60 20% 54% Median
61 15% 33%  
62 7% 18%  
63 4% 11%  
64 4% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 1.1% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 6% 95%  
45 9% 90%  
46 16% 80%  
47 16% 65% Median
48 15% 49%  
49 16% 34%  
50 9% 19%  
51 5% 10% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 5% 97%  
44 7% 92%  
45 9% 85%  
46 15% 76%  
47 17% 61%  
48 14% 44%  
49 12% 30% Median
50 9% 17%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.9% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.6%  
41 4% 96%  
42 9% 92%  
43 14% 83%  
44 15% 68%  
45 16% 54% Median
46 16% 38% Last Result
47 12% 22%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.3%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 7% 97%  
40 11% 90%  
41 15% 79%  
42 19% 64% Median
43 16% 45%  
44 14% 30%  
45 8% 16% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 5% 96%  
39 7% 91%  
40 10% 84%  
41 15% 74%  
42 17% 59%  
43 14% 42%  
44 11% 28% Last Result, Median
45 9% 17%  
46 6% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.7%  
23 1.1% 99.5%  
24 1.0% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 95%  
27 8% 90%  
28 13% 82%  
29 14% 70%  
30 14% 55%  
31 14% 41% Median
32 14% 27%  
33 7% 13%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.1%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 90%  
23 14% 79%  
24 13% 65%  
25 13% 52%  
26 14% 39% Median
27 12% 25%  
28 8% 12%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.0% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 8% 96%  
20 11% 88%  
21 12% 77%  
22 12% 65%  
23 13% 54%  
24 15% 41% Median
25 13% 25%  
26 7% 12%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations