Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 28.3–31.8% 27.8–32.3% 27.4–32.7% 26.6–33.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.1–22.1% 17.8–22.5% 17.1–23.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.4–16.9% 13.1–17.3% 12.5–18.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.5–10.8% 7.0–11.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 16 14–17 14–18 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.6%  
31 5% 98%  
32 11% 93%  
33 17% 82%  
34 20% 65% Last Result, Median
35 18% 45%  
36 14% 27%  
37 9% 14%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.1% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.5% 99.8%  
19 5% 98% Last Result
20 15% 94%  
21 24% 79%  
22 26% 55% Median
23 17% 30%  
24 7% 12%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 10% 97%  
17 21% 87%  
18 28% 66% Median
19 21% 37%  
20 11% 16%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 4% 99.5%  
14 14% 96%  
15 26% 82%  
16 29% 56% Median
17 17% 27%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 11% 99.1%  
8 31% 88%  
9 36% 57% Median
10 17% 21% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 18% 51% Median
5 29% 33%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 71–77 70–78 70–79 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 55–62 54–62 53–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.7% 53–59 52–60 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 80% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.9% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–32 25–33 25–33 24–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 1.4% 99.6%  
70 4% 98%  
71 10% 95%  
72 13% 84%  
73 12% 71%  
74 13% 59% Median
75 16% 46%  
76 12% 31%  
77 10% 19%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 3% Last Result
80 0.4% 0.5%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 6% 97%  
56 9% 92%  
57 14% 83%  
58 19% 69%  
59 18% 50%  
60 16% 32% Median
61 9% 16%  
62 5% 7%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.7% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94% Last Result
54 12% 86%  
55 16% 74%  
56 16% 58% Median
57 15% 43%  
58 12% 27%  
59 8% 15%  
60 5% 7%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 3% 99.1%  
49 6% 96%  
50 11% 91%  
51 15% 80% Majority
52 16% 65% Median
53 18% 49%  
54 14% 31%  
55 8% 17%  
56 5% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.0% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.8%  
42 5% 96%  
43 10% 91%  
44 14% 81%  
45 16% 67%  
46 19% 51%  
47 15% 32% Median
48 9% 17%  
49 5% 8%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.9% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 8% 96%  
41 12% 88%  
42 19% 77%  
43 18% 58% Median
44 15% 39% Last Result
45 11% 25%  
46 8% 13%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.1% 1.4%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 1.4% 99.7%  
38 2% 98%  
39 10% 97%  
40 9% 86%  
41 14% 77%  
42 14% 62%  
43 19% 48%  
44 13% 30% Median
45 9% 17%  
46 5% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.8%  
36 4% 98.8%  
37 7% 95%  
38 9% 88%  
39 26% 79%  
40 17% 53% Median
41 15% 36%  
42 12% 21%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 6% 97%  
34 9% 91%  
35 13% 83%  
36 14% 69%  
37 17% 55%  
38 17% 38% Median
39 10% 22%  
40 6% 12%  
41 4% 6%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.8%  
27 4% 98.8%  
28 9% 95%  
29 16% 86% Last Result
30 21% 70%  
31 23% 49% Median
32 14% 27%  
33 8% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.3% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 94%  
27 12% 86%  
28 13% 74%  
29 14% 61%  
30 16% 47%  
31 13% 31% Median
32 10% 18%  
33 6% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 6% 98%  
25 14% 91%  
26 21% 77%  
27 23% 56% Median
28 18% 33%  
29 9% 16%  
30 5% 6%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations