Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.2% 33.3–37.2% 32.8–37.7% 32.3–38.2% 31.4–39.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.3%  
37 5% 97%  
38 9% 92%  
39 15% 84%  
40 18% 68%  
41 19% 51% Median
42 14% 32%  
43 10% 17%  
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 7% 98% Last Result
20 14% 91%  
21 25% 77%  
22 21% 52% Median
23 17% 30%  
24 10% 14%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 11% 97%  
15 23% 86%  
16 24% 63% Median
17 24% 39%  
18 11% 16%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 3% 99.8%  
12 11% 97%  
13 24% 86%  
14 30% 62% Median
15 21% 32%  
16 8% 12%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 25% 96%  
7 41% 70% Median
8 23% 30%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 0% 40%  
2 0% 40%  
3 0% 40%  
4 18% 40%  
5 20% 22%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 75–81 74–82 74–82 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–67 61–67 60–68 59–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 62 100% 59–65 58–66 58–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 57 99.7% 54–60 53–60 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 31% 46–52 46–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 8% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 39 0% 37–43 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 25 0% 22–28 21–29 21–30 20–31
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.5%  
74 4% 98%  
75 9% 94%  
76 11% 85%  
77 12% 74%  
78 13% 62%  
79 13% 48% Last Result, Median
80 17% 35%  
81 11% 18%  
82 6% 7%  
83 1.5% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.7%  
60 3% 99.0%  
61 8% 96%  
62 11% 88%  
63 16% 77% Median
64 20% 61%  
65 18% 41% Last Result
66 12% 23%  
67 7% 11%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.8% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 4% 98%  
59 6% 94%  
60 11% 88%  
61 17% 77%  
62 14% 60%  
63 16% 46% Median
64 15% 30%  
65 6% 15%  
66 6% 8%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 98.6%  
53 5% 96%  
54 10% 90%  
55 13% 81%  
56 16% 68%  
57 17% 52% Median
58 15% 35%  
59 10% 20%  
60 6% 10% Last Result
61 3% 4%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 1.3% 99.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 7% 96%  
47 11% 90%  
48 14% 78% Median
49 17% 65%  
50 16% 48%  
51 15% 31% Majority
52 8% 17%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.7%  
43 3% 99.0%  
44 5% 96% Last Result
45 9% 92%  
46 15% 83%  
47 18% 68%  
48 16% 50% Median
49 15% 34%  
50 10% 19%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.7%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 96%  
40 10% 88%  
41 16% 79% Median
42 16% 63%  
43 15% 47%  
44 15% 32%  
45 8% 17%  
46 5% 9% Last Result
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 6% 96%  
37 10% 91%  
38 13% 81% Median
39 18% 68%  
40 16% 49%  
41 13% 33%  
42 10% 20%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.5% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 9% 94%  
36 14% 85%  
37 18% 72%  
38 17% 54% Median
39 17% 37%  
40 11% 19%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 8% 96%  
27 13% 88%  
28 24% 75%  
29 17% 52% Last Result, Median
30 19% 35%  
31 10% 16%  
32 4% 6%  
33 1.2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.7%  
21 5% 98%  
22 9% 94%  
23 16% 85% Median
24 15% 69%  
25 15% 55%  
26 15% 40%  
27 10% 25%  
28 9% 15%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.8%  
20 4% 98.6%  
21 12% 94%  
22 19% 82%  
23 23% 63% Median
24 19% 40%  
25 13% 20%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations