Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 10–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.2%  
29 7% 97%  
30 11% 90%  
31 22% 79%  
32 22% 58% Median
33 17% 36%  
34 10% 19% Last Result
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.8%  
19 5% 98.6% Last Result
20 13% 94%  
21 21% 81%  
22 26% 60% Median
23 19% 34%  
24 10% 15%  
25 3% 5%  
26 1.1% 1.5%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 10% 97%  
17 20% 87%  
18 26% 67% Median
19 23% 41%  
20 12% 18%  
21 5% 6%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 11% 96%  
16 24% 86%  
17 26% 62% Median
18 20% 36%  
19 11% 15%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 12% 99.2%  
6 38% 87% Median
7 35% 49%  
8 12% 14%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 7% 93%  
5 44% 86% Median
6 33% 42%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 69–75 68–76 68–77 66–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 94% 51–56 50–57 50–58 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 42% 47–53 47–54 46–54 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.4% 43–48 42–48 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 37–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 23–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 3% 98%  
69 6% 95%  
70 12% 89%  
71 18% 77%  
72 20% 59% Median
73 17% 40%  
74 11% 22%  
75 5% 11%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 1.5% 99.0%  
55 3% 97%  
56 6% 94%  
57 12% 88%  
58 17% 76%  
59 19% 59% Median
60 17% 39%  
61 12% 22%  
62 6% 10%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.7% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.4% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 8% 94% Majority
52 12% 87%  
53 20% 75% Last Result
54 17% 54% Median
55 17% 37%  
56 11% 20%  
57 5% 9%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.7%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.6%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 7% 96%  
48 11% 90%  
49 17% 79%  
50 20% 62% Median
51 18% 42% Majority
52 11% 23%  
53 6% 12%  
54 4% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 1.4% 99.2%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 11% 90%  
44 16% 79%  
45 19% 64% Median
46 17% 44%  
47 14% 27%  
48 9% 14%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 8% 92%  
42 15% 84%  
43 19% 69% Median
44 17% 50%  
45 15% 33%  
46 9% 17%  
47 6% 8%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.1%  
37 7% 97%  
38 11% 90%  
39 19% 79%  
40 19% 60% Median
41 16% 41%  
42 14% 25%  
43 7% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 2% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.3%  
35 4% 97%  
36 10% 94%  
37 16% 84%  
38 21% 68% Median
39 19% 47%  
40 14% 28%  
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.1% 99.4%  
32 1.2% 98%  
33 3% 97%  
34 5% 95%  
35 10% 89%  
36 18% 79%  
37 21% 61% Median
38 17% 40%  
39 12% 23%  
40 6% 11%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 0.9% 99.4%  
25 2% 98.5%  
26 3% 97%  
27 6% 94%  
28 11% 88%  
29 19% 77% Median
30 21% 58%  
31 19% 37%  
32 11% 19%  
33 5% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 3% 98.6%  
26 9% 95%  
27 19% 86%  
28 19% 68% Median
29 23% 48% Last Result
30 14% 26%  
31 8% 12%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.0% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.3%  
22 7% 97%  
23 13% 90%  
24 24% 77% Median
25 22% 54%  
26 18% 31%  
27 8% 13%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations