Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 4% 99.0% Last Result
35 10% 95%  
36 17% 86%  
37 20% 68% Median
38 16% 48%  
39 13% 32%  
40 9% 19%  
41 5% 10%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 7% 98%  
19 16% 90%  
20 24% 74%  
21 23% 50% Median
22 16% 28%  
23 8% 11%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 15% 92%  
19 23% 77% Last Result
20 23% 54% Median
21 18% 31%  
22 9% 13%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.9%  
12 7% 98.6%  
13 19% 91%  
14 30% 72% Median
15 25% 42%  
16 12% 17%  
17 4% 5%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 6% 97%  
5 38% 91%  
6 38% 54% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100%  
1 0% 68%  
2 0% 68%  
3 0% 68%  
4 19% 68% Median
5 40% 50%  
6 9% 10%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 77 100% 75–81 74–82 74–83 73–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 57–64 57–65 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 55–61 55–62 54–63 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 54–61 54–61 53–62 52–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 5% 43–50 43–50 42–51 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 41–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–46 35–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–28 23–29 22–30 20–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–28 22–28 21–29 19–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 1.4% 99.6%  
74 4% 98%  
75 11% 94%  
76 16% 83%  
77 18% 67%  
78 12% 49% Median
79 9% 37% Last Result
80 9% 28%  
81 10% 19%  
82 6% 9%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 5% 98%  
58 8% 93%  
59 14% 85%  
60 19% 71%  
61 18% 52% Median
62 14% 34%  
63 11% 20%  
64 5% 9%  
65 3% 4% Last Result
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.7%  
54 3% 98.6%  
55 8% 95%  
56 13% 88%  
57 15% 75%  
58 17% 60% Median
59 14% 43%  
60 12% 29% Last Result
61 8% 17%  
62 4% 9%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.8% 99.7%  
53 3% 98.9% Last Result
54 8% 96%  
55 11% 89%  
56 17% 78%  
57 15% 60% Median
58 15% 46%  
59 12% 31%  
60 8% 19%  
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 95%  
44 10% 89%  
45 11% 79%  
46 17% 67%  
47 18% 50% Median
48 13% 32%  
49 9% 19%  
50 6% 11%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.4%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95%  
41 9% 90%  
42 12% 81%  
43 17% 69%  
44 16% 52%  
45 15% 36% Median
46 11% 21%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.9% 99.4%  
39 3% 98.6%  
40 6% 96%  
41 13% 90%  
42 17% 77%  
43 19% 59% Median
44 14% 41% Last Result
45 11% 26%  
46 8% 15%  
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.9% 1.2%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 5% 97%  
38 8% 92%  
39 11% 84%  
40 13% 73%  
41 18% 59% Median
42 17% 41%  
43 10% 25%  
44 7% 15%  
45 5% 8%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.7% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.0%  
37 6% 96%  
38 11% 90%  
39 15% 79%  
40 19% 64%  
41 17% 44% Median
42 12% 28%  
43 9% 15%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.5%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 4% 97%  
26 7% 93%  
27 10% 86%  
28 10% 76%  
29 14% 66%  
30 17% 52%  
31 15% 35% Median
32 11% 20%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.9% 99.2%  
22 2% 98%  
23 4% 96%  
24 12% 92%  
25 18% 80%  
26 22% 63%  
27 20% 41% Median
28 12% 21%  
29 6% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 0.8% 99.3%  
21 2% 98.5%  
22 4% 97%  
23 10% 93%  
24 18% 83%  
25 20% 65%  
26 21% 45% Median
27 13% 24%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 3% Last Result
30 0.7% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations