Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–22 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.3% 33.4–37.3% 32.9–37.8% 32.4–38.3% 31.5–39.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.3% 17.8–21.0% 17.3–21.5% 17.0–21.9% 16.3–22.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–23 18–23 17–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.3%  
37 5% 97%  
38 12% 92%  
39 16% 80%  
40 19% 64% Median
41 18% 45%  
42 12% 27%  
43 7% 15%  
44 5% 8%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 2% 99.5%  
18 8% 97%  
19 17% 89%  
20 27% 72% Median
21 21% 46%  
22 14% 25%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 13% 95%  
18 22% 82%  
19 22% 60% Last Result, Median
20 19% 38%  
21 13% 18%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 5% 99.4%  
11 17% 95%  
12 31% 77% Median
13 27% 46%  
14 14% 19%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 7% 94%  
5 44% 88% Median
6 35% 43%  
7 7% 9%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100%  
1 0% 73%  
2 0% 73%  
3 0% 73%  
4 19% 73%  
5 42% 55% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 79 100% 77–83 76–84 76–85 75–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–66 59–67 59–67 57–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 58–64 57–65 56–66 55–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–62 56–64 55–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 30% 46–52 45–52 44–53 43–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 1.1% 43–48 42–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.2% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0.1% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 26–32 25–33 24–33 21–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 23–28 22–29 21–29 19–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–27 21–27 19–28 18–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100%  
75 2% 99.6%  
76 4% 98%  
77 11% 94%  
78 19% 83%  
79 18% 64% Last Result, Median
80 12% 46%  
81 8% 34%  
82 9% 25%  
83 7% 16%  
84 6% 9%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.5%  
59 4% 98%  
60 5% 94%  
61 13% 89%  
62 19% 76%  
63 16% 56%  
64 18% 40% Median
65 11% 23% Last Result
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 5% 97%  
58 10% 92%  
59 14% 83%  
60 17% 68% Last Result, Median
61 16% 51%  
62 12% 35%  
63 9% 23%  
64 6% 14%  
65 4% 8%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.3%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
54 0.8% 99.7%  
55 3% 98.9%  
56 7% 96%  
57 13% 89%  
58 15% 77%  
59 17% 61% Median
60 14% 44%  
61 11% 30%  
62 9% 19%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 5%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 1.0% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 2% 97%  
46 8% 94%  
47 11% 87%  
48 12% 76%  
49 20% 64%  
50 14% 44% Median
51 14% 30% Majority
52 11% 16%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.5% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.7%  
42 5% 96%  
43 9% 92%  
44 17% 83% Last Result
45 15% 66% Median
46 18% 51%  
47 18% 34%  
48 6% 16%  
49 5% 9%  
50 3% 5%  
51 0.7% 1.1% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 4% 97%  
41 9% 93%  
42 9% 84%  
43 15% 75%  
44 20% 60%  
45 15% 40% Median
46 11% 25% Last Result
47 8% 14%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 4% 97%  
40 6% 93%  
41 11% 86%  
42 15% 76%  
43 18% 61%  
44 15% 43% Median
45 14% 28%  
46 7% 14%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 11% 93%  
38 17% 82%  
39 18% 65% Median
40 17% 47%  
41 13% 30%  
42 10% 17%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.4%  
23 0.7% 99.1%  
24 2% 98%  
25 4% 96%  
26 7% 92%  
27 8% 85%  
28 13% 77%  
29 13% 64%  
30 18% 51% Median
31 14% 33%  
32 13% 20%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 2% 96%  
23 8% 94%  
24 12% 87%  
25 21% 75% Median
26 20% 54%  
27 17% 33%  
28 10% 16%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.6%  
19 2% 99.1%  
20 2% 97%  
21 4% 96%  
22 10% 92%  
23 16% 82%  
24 22% 66% Median
25 20% 44%  
26 14% 25%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations