Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 23 February–1 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.4% 33.5–37.4% 33.0–37.9% 32.5–38.4% 31.6–39.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.4% 15.8–22.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 11 9–13 9–13 9–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.4%  
37 2% 97%  
38 12% 94%  
39 19% 83%  
40 19% 63% Median
41 12% 44%  
42 12% 32%  
43 10% 19%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.6% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.7%  
19 5% 99.0% Last Result
20 13% 94%  
21 13% 81%  
22 23% 69% Median
23 29% 46%  
24 11% 17%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.8%  
17 4% 98.8%  
18 14% 95%  
19 21% 81%  
20 24% 60% Median
21 19% 35%  
22 11% 16%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 12% 99.3%  
10 15% 88%  
11 39% 73% Median
12 20% 34%  
13 12% 14%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 7% 95%  
5 46% 89% Median
6 32% 43%  
7 11% 12%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 23% 46%  
5 21% 24%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 83 100% 79–85 78–87 78–87 77–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 65 100% 62–68 62–68 61–69 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 63 100% 59–65 59–66 58–67 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 58–64 56–65 56–65 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 14% 45–51 44–51 43–52 41–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 2% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 41–47 40–48 39–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 39–45 39–46 39–47 37–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 27 0% 24–30 23–31 23–32 21–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 25–30 24–30 22–31 21–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–29 19–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.3% 100%  
77 1.1% 99.6%  
78 4% 98.5%  
79 8% 94% Last Result
80 6% 87%  
81 18% 80%  
82 11% 63% Median
83 14% 52%  
84 13% 38%  
85 19% 25%  
86 1.3% 6%  
87 3% 5%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.3%  
61 4% 98.6%  
62 10% 95% Median
63 16% 85%  
64 15% 68%  
65 16% 53% Last Result
66 17% 37%  
67 10% 20%  
68 7% 10%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0.5% 100%  
57 0.9% 99.4%  
58 3% 98%  
59 6% 95%  
60 4% 89%  
61 12% 85%  
62 19% 73% Median
63 23% 54%  
64 11% 31%  
65 11% 19%  
66 5% 9%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.8% 1.2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.6%  
56 4% 98%  
57 3% 94%  
58 20% 91%  
59 9% 71%  
60 15% 62% Last Result, Median
61 16% 48%  
62 12% 31%  
63 5% 20%  
64 9% 14%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 1.2% 98.7%  
44 5% 97%  
45 10% 92% Median
46 11% 82%  
47 14% 71%  
48 17% 57%  
49 15% 40%  
50 11% 25%  
51 9% 14% Majority
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 2% 96%  
43 10% 94%  
44 17% 83% Last Result
45 14% 67% Median
46 17% 52%  
47 12% 35%  
48 8% 23%  
49 9% 15%  
50 4% 6%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 3% 99.5%  
40 5% 97%  
41 9% 92%  
42 9% 84% Median
43 15% 75%  
44 12% 60%  
45 12% 48%  
46 22% 36%  
47 9% 15%  
48 3% 6%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.1%  
39 8% 98%  
40 14% 90% Median
41 6% 75%  
42 17% 69%  
43 19% 53%  
44 11% 34%  
45 13% 22%  
46 5% 10% Last Result
47 2% 4%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.7%  
38 4% 98.6%  
39 6% 94%  
40 8% 88%  
41 20% 80%  
42 18% 60% Median
43 19% 42%  
44 9% 22%  
45 7% 13% Last Result
46 4% 6%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 1.5% 99.5%  
23 5% 98%  
24 4% 93%  
25 12% 89% Median
26 10% 77%  
27 20% 67%  
28 17% 47%  
29 14% 30%  
30 7% 15%  
31 4% 9%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.5% 1.0%  
34 0.5% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 2% 98.9%  
23 2% 97%  
24 2% 95%  
25 7% 93%  
26 13% 86%  
27 17% 73% Median
28 32% 56%  
29 14% 24% Last Result
30 5% 10%  
31 3% 5%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.3% 99.8%  
20 1.0% 99.5%  
21 1.4% 98%  
22 5% 97%  
23 11% 92%  
24 14% 81%  
25 26% 67% Median
26 14% 42%  
27 18% 28%  
28 6% 10%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations