Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 36.7% 34.8–38.7% 34.2–39.2% 33.8–39.7% 32.9–40.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–21
Eesti 200 0 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 6% 97%  
40 11% 91%  
41 21% 80%  
42 10% 59% Median
43 24% 49%  
44 10% 25%  
45 7% 15%  
46 3% 7%  
47 4% 4%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.8%  
19 5% 99.0% Last Result
20 12% 94%  
21 17% 82%  
22 26% 65% Median
23 31% 39%  
24 5% 8%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.7% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.4%  
16 16% 94%  
17 17% 78%  
18 38% 61% Median
19 14% 23%  
20 5% 9%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 5% 99.8%  
9 20% 95%  
10 46% 75% Median
11 13% 29%  
12 14% 16%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.7% 0.7%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 6% 95%  
5 43% 89% Median
6 34% 46%  
7 11% 12%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 33% 77% Median
5 34% 44%  
6 9% 10%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 79–85 79–86 78–87 77–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 69 100% 67–73 66–74 65–74 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 64 100% 62–67 61–68 60–69 59–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 57–63 57–64 56–65 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 51 55% 49–54 47–55 47–56 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 12% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 1.4% 43–49 42–50 41–50 40–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.6% 42–48 41–48 40–49 39–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 23–29 22–30 21–31 18–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 23–28 21–28 19–28 19–30
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 18–24 17–25 16–25 15–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 3% 99.3%  
79 9% 96% Last Result
80 14% 88%  
81 20% 74%  
82 26% 54% Median
83 6% 28%  
84 10% 23%  
85 5% 13%  
86 4% 7%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 1.5% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.7% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.2% Last Result
66 5% 97%  
67 10% 92%  
68 13% 82%  
69 26% 70% Median
70 13% 44%  
71 14% 30%  
72 6% 16%  
73 4% 10%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.7% 1.0%  
76 0.3% 0.3%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 6% 97%  
62 13% 91%  
63 12% 77%  
64 28% 66% Median
65 12% 38%  
66 12% 25%  
67 7% 14%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 1.5% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.5% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.5%  
56 3% 98.8%  
57 9% 96%  
58 11% 87%  
59 23% 76%  
60 13% 53% Last Result, Median
61 16% 39%  
62 10% 23%  
63 4% 13%  
64 5% 8%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 1.4% 99.3%  
47 4% 98%  
48 4% 94%  
49 10% 90%  
50 25% 80%  
51 8% 55% Median, Majority
52 17% 48%  
53 18% 30%  
54 3% 12%  
55 5% 9%  
56 3% 4% Last Result
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 4% 97%  
45 11% 93%  
46 20% 82% Last Result
47 12% 62% Median
48 14% 50%  
49 17% 36%  
50 7% 19%  
51 6% 12% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 3% 97%  
43 11% 95%  
44 6% 83% Last Result
45 26% 78%  
46 10% 52% Median
47 17% 42%  
48 15% 25%  
49 4% 11%  
50 6% 7%  
51 0.6% 1.4% Majority
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 3% 97%  
42 5% 94%  
43 16% 89%  
44 16% 73%  
45 11% 56% Median
46 25% 45%  
47 8% 20%  
48 8% 11%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.5% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.6%  
36 5% 98.9%  
37 8% 94%  
38 18% 86%  
39 15% 68%  
40 14% 53% Median
41 27% 40%  
42 7% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 1.3% 99.9%  
19 0.2% 98.6%  
20 0.7% 98%  
21 0.7% 98%  
22 3% 97%  
23 4% 94%  
24 6% 90%  
25 9% 84%  
26 15% 75%  
27 25% 60% Median
28 19% 36%  
29 9% 17%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.2% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 0.9% 97%  
21 2% 97%  
22 4% 94%  
23 8% 90%  
24 6% 82%  
25 16% 76%  
26 19% 61% Median
27 29% 42%  
28 11% 13%  
29 2% 2% Last Result
30 0.4% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 4% 97%  
18 7% 94%  
19 7% 86%  
20 11% 80%  
21 9% 69%  
22 35% 60% Median
23 12% 25%  
24 8% 14%  
25 4% 6%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations