Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–15 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.6% 29.8–33.5% 29.2–34.1% 28.8–34.6% 27.9–35.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 34–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–26 18–27
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.2%  
33 5% 97%  
34 12% 91% Last Result
35 14% 80%  
36 20% 66% Median
37 20% 45%  
38 13% 25%  
39 6% 13%  
40 5% 7%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 9% 96%  
24 18% 87%  
25 21% 69% Median
26 20% 48% Last Result
27 14% 27%  
28 9% 13%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.8% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.3% Last Result
20 9% 96%  
21 18% 88%  
22 23% 70% Median
23 21% 47%  
24 17% 26%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.8% 100%  
8 9% 99.1%  
9 25% 90%  
10 36% 65% Median
11 21% 30%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 5% 96%  
5 39% 91%  
6 38% 52% Median
7 12% 14%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0% 34%  
3 0% 34%  
4 15% 34%  
5 17% 19%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 81–87 80–88 79–89 78–91
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 59–65 58–66 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–63 57–64 56–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–62 55–62 54–63 53–65
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 31% 47–52 46–53 45–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 48 12% 45–51 44–51 44–52 42–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0.1% 40–46 40–47 39–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 38–45 37–46 35–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 29–36 29–36 28–37 26–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 28–33 27–34 27–35 25–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 25–30 24–31 24–31 22–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.6% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.2% Last Result
80 6% 97%  
81 9% 91%  
82 10% 82%  
83 9% 72% Median
84 14% 63%  
85 19% 49%  
86 18% 30%  
87 7% 12%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.7% 3%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.4%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 1.0% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 5% 96%  
59 9% 91%  
60 12% 82% Last Result
61 13% 69% Median
62 20% 56%  
63 14% 36%  
64 10% 22%  
65 6% 12%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.7%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 8% 96%  
58 11% 88% Median
59 13% 77%  
60 21% 64%  
61 17% 43%  
62 12% 26%  
63 7% 14%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.9% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
54 2% 98%  
55 5% 96%  
56 11% 91%  
57 13% 81%  
58 17% 68% Median
59 13% 51%  
60 17% 38%  
61 11% 22%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 4% 99.2%  
46 6% 96%  
47 9% 90% Median
48 20% 81%  
49 14% 61%  
50 17% 48%  
51 12% 31% Majority
52 10% 19%  
53 4% 9%  
54 3% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.3%  
44 3% 98%  
45 10% 94% Last Result
46 11% 84%  
47 14% 73% Median
48 23% 58%  
49 11% 35%  
50 12% 24%  
51 7% 12% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.4% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 8% 95%  
41 11% 87%  
42 15% 77% Median
43 18% 62%  
44 14% 44%  
45 12% 30%  
46 10% 18%  
47 4% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.7% 99.4%  
37 2% 98.7%  
38 4% 96%  
39 7% 92%  
40 14% 85%  
41 16% 70%  
42 19% 55% Median
43 16% 36%  
44 10% 20% Last Result
45 6% 10%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 5% 98%  
35 9% 93%  
36 14% 84% Median
37 18% 70%  
38 16% 52%  
39 11% 36%  
40 12% 25%  
41 8% 13%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.6%  
27 1.0% 99.1%  
28 3% 98%  
29 6% 96%  
30 11% 89%  
31 15% 78% Median
32 15% 63%  
33 14% 48%  
34 12% 34%  
35 11% 21%  
36 6% 11%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.6%  
26 1.3% 98.9%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 95%  
29 13% 89%  
30 18% 76%  
31 21% 59% Median
32 17% 38%  
33 11% 21%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.5%  
23 1.4% 98.9%  
24 3% 98%  
25 6% 95%  
26 11% 89%  
27 19% 77%  
28 21% 58% Median
29 19% 37% Last Result
30 11% 19%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations