Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 9–15 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6% 7.3–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 16 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.7%  
26 4% 98.7%  
27 11% 94%  
28 19% 83%  
29 20% 65% Median
30 22% 45%  
31 13% 23%  
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.7%  
19 6% 98.9%  
20 16% 93%  
21 16% 77%  
22 28% 62% Median
23 21% 33%  
24 9% 13%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 7% 98%  
19 17% 91% Last Result
20 24% 73% Median
21 25% 50%  
22 15% 25%  
23 7% 10%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 5% 99.3%  
14 13% 94%  
15 23% 81%  
16 32% 58% Median
17 17% 27%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 12% 99.0%  
8 36% 87%  
9 30% 52% Median
10 16% 21% Last Result
11 5% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 6% 92%  
5 45% 86% Median
6 32% 42%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 71 100% 69–74 68–75 68–77 67–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98% 52–57 52–58 51–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 61% 48–53 48–54 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 33% 47–52 47–53 46–54 45–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 5% 45–50 44–51 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 35–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 33–38 32–39 31–39 29–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 1.2% 99.7%  
68 4% 98.5%  
69 10% 94%  
70 15% 85%  
71 20% 70% Median
72 21% 49%  
73 14% 29%  
74 8% 15%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 1.1% 99.3%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 7% 95%  
53 11% 88%  
54 19% 77% Median
55 24% 57%  
56 16% 34%  
57 10% 18%  
58 4% 8%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 4% 99.1%  
48 8% 95%  
49 9% 87%  
50 18% 79%  
51 15% 61% Median, Majority
52 26% 46%  
53 11% 20%  
54 5% 10%  
55 2% 5%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.7%  
46 3% 98.5%  
47 9% 96%  
48 14% 87%  
49 21% 73% Median
50 19% 52%  
51 15% 33% Majority
52 9% 18%  
53 5% 9% Last Result
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 5% 97%  
45 8% 91%  
46 13% 83%  
47 24% 70% Median
48 16% 46%  
49 14% 30%  
50 10% 16%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 1.4% 99.3%  
39 2% 98%  
40 6% 95%  
41 13% 89%  
42 16% 77%  
43 20% 60% Median
44 19% 41%  
45 13% 22%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 6% 98%  
40 8% 92%  
41 20% 84%  
42 20% 64% Median
43 14% 44%  
44 19% 30%  
45 6% 12% Last Result
46 4% 6%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 9% 97%  
36 12% 88%  
37 16% 76%  
38 23% 59% Median
39 16% 36%  
40 12% 20%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.4%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 97%  
33 8% 93%  
34 14% 85%  
35 20% 71%  
36 18% 52% Median
37 18% 34%  
38 10% 16%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.7%  
29 1.1% 99.1%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 9% 92%  
33 15% 83%  
34 21% 68% Median
35 18% 47%  
36 16% 29%  
37 8% 12%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.2% 1.5%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 8% 95%  
29 16% 87%  
30 23% 71%  
31 21% 48% Median
32 14% 28%  
33 9% 13%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.9% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.8%  
27 12% 95%  
28 21% 82%  
29 21% 62% Last Result, Median
30 19% 41%  
31 12% 22%  
32 6% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.9% 1.2%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations