Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 11–16 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.0% 26.3–29.8% 25.8–30.3% 25.4–30.7% 24.7–31.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.0% 17.6–20.6% 17.2–21.1% 16.8–21.4% 16.2–22.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.9–20.4% 15.2–21.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.8% 7.0–11.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–34 29–35 29–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–24
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 1.4% 99.3%  
29 7% 98%  
30 11% 91%  
31 18% 80%  
32 22% 62% Median
33 15% 40%  
34 15% 25% Last Result
35 5% 9%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 6% 98.9%  
19 14% 93% Last Result
20 25% 79%  
21 23% 54% Median
22 15% 31%  
23 13% 16%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 98%  
18 18% 92%  
19 24% 75%  
20 24% 51% Median
21 16% 26%  
22 8% 10%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 13% 96%  
16 20% 83%  
17 28% 63% Median
18 20% 35%  
19 9% 14%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 10% 99.3%  
8 30% 90%  
9 38% 59% Median
10 17% 21% Last Result
11 4% 5%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 0% 53%  
4 18% 53% Median
5 29% 35%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 4% 8%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 69–75 68–76 68–77 66–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 85% 50–56 49–57 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 68% 49–55 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–44 37–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–39 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–34 27–35 26–35 25–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 3% 98%  
69 8% 95%  
70 11% 87%  
71 14% 76%  
72 11% 62%  
73 15% 51% Median
74 11% 36%  
75 17% 24%  
76 3% 7%  
77 3% 4%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.5%  
51 2% 98% Majority
52 5% 96%  
53 10% 91%  
54 13% 80%  
55 21% 67%  
56 16% 47%  
57 14% 31% Median
58 10% 17%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 4% 97%  
50 8% 93%  
51 15% 85% Majority
52 12% 70%  
53 21% 58% Last Result, Median
54 13% 37%  
55 11% 24%  
56 8% 13%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.5% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 5% 96%  
49 8% 92%  
50 15% 84%  
51 16% 68% Majority
52 17% 52% Median
53 15% 36%  
54 8% 21%  
55 10% 13%  
56 1.3% 3%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.4% 99.5%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 10% 91%  
42 18% 81%  
43 15% 63%  
44 17% 48%  
45 15% 31% Median
46 6% 16%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.2% 1.4%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 98.8%  
39 7% 97%  
40 5% 90%  
41 12% 85%  
42 22% 73%  
43 12% 52%  
44 15% 39%  
45 10% 25% Median
46 8% 15%  
47 5% 6%  
48 1.0% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.7%  
37 4% 98.5%  
38 9% 95%  
39 13% 86%  
40 16% 72%  
41 17% 56% Median
42 18% 39%  
43 9% 21%  
44 8% 12% Last Result
45 3% 5%  
46 0.9% 1.2%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 1.5% 99.2%  
37 7% 98%  
38 8% 90%  
39 19% 82%  
40 14% 62%  
41 17% 48% Median
42 19% 31%  
43 5% 12%  
44 5% 7%  
45 1.0% 2% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.1% 99.8%  
30 2% 98.7%  
31 7% 97%  
32 9% 90%  
33 14% 82%  
34 16% 68%  
35 17% 52%  
36 13% 35% Median
37 11% 22%  
38 5% 11%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.4%  
27 4% 97%  
28 12% 93%  
29 12% 81%  
30 13% 70%  
31 17% 57%  
32 14% 39%  
33 12% 25% Median
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 4% 99.1%  
27 9% 95%  
28 17% 86%  
29 17% 68% Last Result
30 23% 52% Median
31 14% 28%  
32 8% 15%  
33 5% 6%  
34 1.0% 1.4%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 4% 98.6%  
26 10% 95%  
27 18% 85%  
28 23% 67%  
29 20% 44% Median
30 12% 25%  
31 9% 12%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations