Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–22 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.2% 11.0–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–40 35–41 34–41 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–21 16–21 15–23
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.2% Last Result
35 6% 96%  
36 14% 90%  
37 19% 77%  
38 21% 58% Median
39 17% 37%  
40 11% 20%  
41 6% 8%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.8%  
18 6% 98%  
19 17% 92%  
20 26% 75% Median
21 21% 50%  
22 17% 28%  
23 9% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 6% 98%  
17 16% 92%  
18 24% 76%  
19 25% 52% Last Result, Median
20 16% 26%  
21 8% 10%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 8% 99.0%  
11 21% 91%  
12 29% 70% Median
13 25% 40%  
14 12% 15%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 3% 99.0%  
5 26% 96%  
6 48% 70% Median
7 18% 23%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 0% 99.0%  
3 0% 99.0%  
4 3% 99.0%  
5 30% 96%  
6 39% 66% Median
7 23% 27%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 77 100% 75–79 74–80 74–81 73–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–65 59–65 59–66 58–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 56–61 55–62 55–62 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.9% 54–59 53–60 53–60 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 50 34% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.3% 43–48 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–42 36–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 32 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 1.3% 99.7%  
74 4% 98%  
75 12% 95%  
76 22% 83%  
77 22% 60% Median
78 19% 38%  
79 13% 19% Last Result
80 3% 6%  
81 1.3% 3%  
82 0.6% 1.3%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.6%  
59 5% 98%  
60 10% 93%  
61 17% 83%  
62 19% 66%  
63 20% 47% Median
64 16% 28%  
65 7% 12% Last Result
66 3% 5%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.6%  
55 4% 98%  
56 10% 94%  
57 20% 84%  
58 14% 64% Median
59 19% 50%  
60 17% 32% Last Result
61 9% 15%  
62 4% 6%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.3% 99.6%  
53 4% 98% Last Result
54 10% 94%  
55 17% 85%  
56 19% 67%  
57 19% 48% Median
58 15% 29%  
59 9% 15%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.5% 99.4%  
46 4% 98%  
47 8% 94%  
48 14% 86%  
49 16% 73%  
50 23% 56% Median
51 17% 34% Majority
52 11% 17%  
53 4% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 6% 97%  
43 11% 91%  
44 18% 80%  
45 21% 62% Median
46 20% 41%  
47 9% 20%  
48 8% 11%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.1% 1.4%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.4% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 12% 87%  
43 19% 75%  
44 19% 56% Median
45 18% 37%  
46 11% 18% Last Result
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.5%  
41 7% 95%  
42 14% 89%  
43 19% 75%  
44 19% 56% Last Result, Median
45 20% 37%  
46 9% 17%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 11% 93%  
38 18% 82%  
39 24% 64% Median
40 19% 40%  
41 11% 22%  
42 7% 11%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 1.3% 99.1%  
29 5% 98%  
30 9% 93%  
31 16% 85%  
32 20% 69% Median
33 21% 48%  
34 14% 27%  
35 8% 13%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 0.7% 99.5%  
23 3% 98.8%  
24 9% 96%  
25 16% 88%  
26 22% 71% Median
27 22% 49%  
28 15% 28%  
29 9% 13%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.7% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.2% 99.7%  
20 0.6% 99.5%  
21 3% 99.0%  
22 8% 96%  
23 16% 88%  
24 21% 72%  
25 25% 51% Median
26 14% 26%  
27 9% 12%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations