Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 8–14 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.2% 25.5–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.6–30.1% 23.7–31.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.3% 21.6–25.0% 21.2–25.5% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.3–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 28–34 27–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 6% 97%  
29 11% 91%  
30 19% 80%  
31 22% 62% Median
32 19% 40%  
33 11% 21%  
34 6% 10% Last Result
35 3% 4%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 14% 93%  
25 19% 79%  
26 21% 60% Median
27 17% 39%  
28 13% 22%  
29 6% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.7%  
19 12% 94%  
20 22% 82%  
21 24% 60% Median
22 19% 36%  
23 11% 17%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 14% 96%  
13 28% 82%  
14 28% 54% Median
15 17% 26%  
16 7% 9%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 10% 99.4%  
6 36% 89%  
7 36% 53% Median
8 14% 17%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 0% 54%  
4 16% 54% Median
5 31% 38%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 75–81 74–82 74–83 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–62 56–63 56–64 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.9% 54–60 53–61 53–62 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 76% 49–55 48–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 33% 47–53 46–53 45–54 44–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 47 5% 44–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–45 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 30–37 30–38 29–38 28–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 25–30 25–31 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.5%  
74 4% 98%  
75 9% 94%  
76 14% 84%  
77 15% 71%  
78 12% 56% Median
79 12% 44% Last Result
80 13% 32%  
81 11% 19%  
82 5% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 5% 98%  
57 8% 93%  
58 14% 85%  
59 15% 71%  
60 19% 56%  
61 16% 37% Median
62 12% 21%  
63 5% 9%  
64 3% 4%  
65 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 1.5% 99.5%  
53 4% 98% Last Result
54 7% 94%  
55 12% 87%  
56 17% 76%  
57 16% 59% Median
58 15% 42%  
59 11% 27%  
60 9% 17%  
61 5% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.1%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.4% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 8% 94%  
50 10% 86%  
51 16% 76% Majority
52 18% 59% Median
53 17% 42%  
54 12% 25%  
55 7% 13%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 1.2% 99.7%  
45 3% 98.6%  
46 5% 96%  
47 7% 91%  
48 12% 84%  
49 18% 72%  
50 21% 54%  
51 13% 33% Median, Majority
52 9% 20%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 4% 98.9%  
44 10% 95%  
45 17% 85% Last Result
46 11% 68%  
47 14% 57% Median
48 14% 44%  
49 14% 30%  
50 11% 16%  
51 4% 5% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 12% 86%  
39 13% 74%  
40 13% 61%  
41 14% 48%  
42 13% 34% Median
43 12% 21%  
44 6% 9%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.4% 99.5%  
34 4% 98%  
35 8% 94%  
36 13% 86%  
37 20% 73%  
38 21% 53% Median
39 15% 32%  
40 10% 18%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 8% 96%  
31 10% 88%  
32 13% 78%  
33 13% 65%  
34 11% 52%  
35 12% 41% Median
36 14% 28%  
37 9% 15%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 1.2% 99.7%  
29 4% 98% Last Result
30 10% 95%  
31 13% 85%  
32 21% 72%  
33 17% 51% Median
34 14% 34%  
35 11% 19%  
36 6% 9%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.3%  
26 5% 97%  
27 6% 92%  
28 12% 86%  
29 15% 74%  
30 12% 59%  
31 14% 47%  
32 16% 33% Median
33 9% 18%  
34 5% 8%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.7%  
24 4% 98.7%  
25 8% 95%  
26 16% 87%  
27 18% 71%  
28 22% 52% Median
29 17% 31%  
30 7% 14%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.5% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations