Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 15–21 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.4–28.8% 24.9–29.3% 24.5–29.7% 23.7–30.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.6–20.6% 17.1–21.0% 16.8–21.4% 16.1–22.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.1% 11.5–16.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.8% 6.1–10.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.6–7.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 15 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.5% 99.6%  
28 4% 98%  
29 11% 94%  
30 18% 83%  
31 22% 65% Median
32 20% 43%  
33 13% 23%  
34 7% 10% Last Result
35 2% 4%  
36 1.1% 1.4%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 99.5%  
21 8% 97%  
22 18% 90%  
23 23% 72% Median
24 22% 49%  
25 15% 27%  
26 8% 11%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 4% 99.0%  
19 12% 95%  
20 21% 83%  
21 26% 62% Median
22 19% 35%  
23 10% 16%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.1% 1.4%  
26 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 12% 96%  
14 27% 84%  
15 30% 57% Median
16 18% 28%  
17 7% 9%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 8% 99.6%  
7 31% 91%  
8 37% 60% Median
9 19% 23%  
10 4% 4% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 0% 57%  
2 0% 57%  
3 0% 57%  
4 16% 57% Median
5 33% 41%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–79 72–80 71–80 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 99.9% 55–60 54–61 53–61 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 98% 52–58 51–58 51–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 78% 49–55 49–56 48–56 47–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 6% 44–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0.2% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–45 38–45 37–46 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–37 30–38 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 28–35 28–35 27–36 26–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 5% 97%  
73 11% 92%  
74 13% 81%  
75 16% 67% Median
76 14% 51%  
77 14% 37%  
78 10% 23%  
79 7% 13% Last Result
80 4% 6%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.8%  
53 3% 99.0%  
54 4% 96%  
55 11% 92%  
56 13% 81%  
57 14% 68%  
58 21% 53% Median
59 15% 32%  
60 10% 17%  
61 5% 7%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 5% 98% Majority
52 6% 92%  
53 16% 86% Last Result
54 18% 70% Median
55 17% 53%  
56 16% 36%  
57 8% 19%  
58 7% 11%  
59 3% 4%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.9%  
49 8% 96%  
50 10% 88%  
51 14% 78% Majority
52 24% 64% Median
53 12% 40%  
54 11% 28%  
55 10% 17%  
56 4% 7%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.7% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 7% 95%  
45 10% 88%  
46 15% 78%  
47 17% 63%  
48 17% 46% Median
49 13% 29%  
50 10% 16%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 5% 97%  
42 10% 92%  
43 15% 82%  
44 19% 67% Median
45 17% 48% Last Result
46 15% 31%  
47 9% 17%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.7% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 6% 97%  
39 8% 91%  
40 12% 82%  
41 14% 70%  
42 16% 56%  
43 16% 40% Median
44 13% 24%  
45 6% 11%  
46 3% 5%  
47 1.1% 1.5%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 7% 97%  
37 13% 90%  
38 17% 77%  
39 19% 59% Median
40 18% 40%  
41 10% 22%  
42 7% 11%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.2% 2% Last Result
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 5% 97%  
31 9% 91%  
32 11% 82%  
33 12% 71%  
34 15% 60%  
35 16% 45% Median
36 14% 29%  
37 9% 15%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.8%  
27 3% 98.8%  
28 6% 95%  
29 11% 89%  
30 11% 78%  
31 15% 68%  
32 18% 53%  
33 16% 35% Median
34 9% 19%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.6%  
28 4% 98%  
29 11% 94% Last Result
30 18% 83%  
31 22% 65% Median
32 18% 43%  
33 14% 26%  
34 7% 12%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.4%  
26 8% 97%  
27 15% 89%  
28 20% 75%  
29 23% 55% Median
30 14% 32%  
31 11% 18%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations