Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 April–3 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.5% 26.4–32.0% 25.5–32.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.9% 22.2–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.6% 20.6–27.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 30–36 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 20–25 20–25 19–26 18–27
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 5 4–7 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.3%  
30 7% 96%  
31 11% 89%  
32 17% 78%  
33 24% 60% Median
34 17% 36% Last Result
35 10% 20%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.9% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 4% 99.1%  
24 9% 95%  
25 13% 85%  
26 27% 73% Median
27 15% 45%  
28 16% 30%  
29 9% 14%  
30 3% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.4%  
20 7% 97%  
21 16% 90%  
22 21% 74%  
23 23% 53% Median
24 17% 30%  
25 9% 13%  
26 3% 4% Last Result
27 0.9% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 9% 98%  
11 19% 89%  
12 35% 70% Median
13 23% 35%  
14 9% 12%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 6% 93%  
5 45% 87% Median
6 31% 41%  
7 9% 10%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Median
1 0% 39%  
2 0% 39%  
3 0% 39%  
4 18% 39%  
5 19% 21%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 82 100% 79–85 78–86 77–88 76–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–64 58–65 57–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–63 55–64 55–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 98.5% 52–59 52–60 51–60 50–62
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 55% 48–54 47–55 47–56 45–57
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 49 27% 46–52 45–53 45–54 43–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 37–43 36–44 35–45 33–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 35–41 34–42 33–42 32–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–36 25–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–33 25–34 24–35 22–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 25–30 24–31 23–32 21–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.8% 99.8%  
77 3% 99.1%  
78 6% 96%  
79 10% 91% Last Result
80 11% 81%  
81 10% 70%  
82 13% 60% Median
83 18% 47%  
84 13% 29%  
85 9% 16%  
86 3% 7%  
87 1.0% 4%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 1.2% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 8% 97%  
59 14% 89% Median
60 15% 75%  
61 18% 60%  
62 16% 42%  
63 10% 27%  
64 8% 17%  
65 5% 9% Last Result
66 2% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
54 2% 99.5%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 10% 89%  
58 15% 80%  
59 18% 65% Median
60 15% 47%  
61 13% 32%  
62 8% 19%  
63 5% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.5% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.5% Majority
52 6% 96%  
53 9% 90%  
54 14% 81%  
55 16% 67%  
56 17% 51% Median
57 15% 35%  
58 8% 19%  
59 6% 11%  
60 3% 5% Last Result
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 1.5% 99.2%  
47 4% 98%  
48 7% 94%  
49 13% 87% Median
50 19% 74%  
51 19% 55% Majority
52 12% 36%  
53 10% 24%  
54 8% 13%  
55 3% 6%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.5% 99.4%  
45 4% 98% Last Result
46 8% 94%  
47 12% 86%  
48 12% 74%  
49 18% 62% Median
50 16% 44%  
51 14% 27% Majority
52 6% 14%  
53 4% 8%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 1.2% 99.3%  
35 3% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 8% 92%  
38 14% 84% Median
39 17% 70%  
40 16% 53%  
41 10% 37%  
42 11% 27%  
43 9% 16%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.6%  
33 1.3% 98.8%  
34 4% 97%  
35 7% 94%  
36 11% 87%  
37 15% 77%  
38 19% 62% Median
39 19% 43%  
40 12% 24%  
41 6% 12%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 5% 97%  
32 10% 92%  
33 18% 82% Median
34 14% 64%  
35 14% 50%  
36 9% 36%  
37 11% 26%  
38 8% 15%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 1.1% 99.2%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 9% 92% Last Result
30 12% 83%  
31 17% 72% Median
32 21% 54%  
33 16% 34%  
34 9% 18%  
35 6% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.7%  
23 1.0% 99.5%  
24 1.2% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 6% 95%  
27 9% 89%  
28 12% 79% Median
29 18% 68%  
30 17% 50%  
31 11% 33%  
32 11% 22%  
33 6% 11%  
34 2% 5%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 1.0% 99.1%  
23 2% 98%  
24 4% 96%  
25 6% 92%  
26 12% 86%  
27 19% 74%  
28 17% 55% Median
29 17% 38%  
30 13% 21%  
31 4% 7%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations