Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–10 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.9% 27.6–33.3% 26.8–34.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–26 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 16 14–17 14–18 13–19 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 10% 95%  
33 29% 85%  
34 10% 56% Last Result, Median
35 10% 46%  
36 20% 36%  
37 12% 16%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.8%  
19 4% 99.2% Last Result
20 10% 95%  
21 15% 85%  
22 39% 70% Median
23 14% 31%  
24 8% 17%  
25 5% 9%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 10% 94%  
19 29% 84%  
20 27% 55% Median
21 13% 28%  
22 11% 15%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 4% 99.5%  
14 14% 95%  
15 26% 81%  
16 29% 55% Median
17 16% 26%  
18 5% 10%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 6% 99.7%  
7 33% 94%  
8 35% 61% Median
9 20% 27%  
10 6% 6% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 0% 26%  
2 0% 26%  
3 0% 26%  
4 17% 26%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–79 73–80 72–80 71–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 100% 55–60 54–61 54–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.8% 54–59 53–60 53–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 96% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.1% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 39–45 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–32 27–33 26–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–31 25–33 25–33 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 6% 95%  
74 15% 90%  
75 11% 75%  
76 15% 64% Median
77 11% 49%  
78 26% 38%  
79 7% 12% Last Result
80 4% 5%  
81 0.8% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 7% 98%  
55 10% 91%  
56 8% 81% Median
57 11% 72%  
58 24% 61%  
59 24% 37%  
60 6% 12%  
61 4% 6%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.8% Majority
52 1.5% 99.1%  
53 5% 98% Last Result
54 11% 93%  
55 22% 82%  
56 10% 60% Median
57 12% 50%  
58 22% 39%  
59 10% 17%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.6%  
50 3% 99.1%  
51 6% 96% Majority
52 19% 90%  
53 12% 71%  
54 10% 59% Median
55 17% 49%  
56 19% 32%  
57 8% 13%  
58 4% 5%  
59 0.9% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 13% 97%  
41 5% 84%  
42 10% 79% Median
43 10% 69%  
44 32% 59%  
45 12% 27%  
46 8% 15%  
47 3% 6%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 5% 98.9%  
40 8% 94%  
41 10% 86%  
42 21% 76% Median
43 12% 56%  
44 15% 44%  
45 19% 29%  
46 3% 10%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.5% 99.5%  
39 6% 98%  
40 24% 92%  
41 10% 69%  
42 11% 58% Median
43 9% 47%  
44 24% 38% Last Result
45 8% 14%  
46 5% 6%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.1%  
39 7% 96%  
40 11% 88%  
41 21% 77%  
42 23% 56% Median
43 11% 34%  
44 12% 23%  
45 7% 11% Last Result
46 2% 4%  
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 7% 98%  
33 14% 90%  
34 9% 76% Median
35 10% 68%  
36 22% 58%  
37 23% 36%  
38 7% 13%  
39 2% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 4% 97%  
28 9% 94%  
29 26% 85% Last Result
30 27% 59% Median
31 12% 32%  
32 10% 19%  
33 5% 9%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.9%  
25 4% 98%  
26 8% 94%  
27 10% 86%  
28 23% 76% Median
29 14% 53%  
30 22% 39%  
31 8% 17%  
32 4% 10%  
33 3% 5%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 7% 98%  
26 20% 91%  
27 15% 71%  
28 26% 56% Median
29 14% 30%  
30 12% 16%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations