Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 6–11 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.0% 24.3–27.9% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 27–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 21–26 20–26 20–26 19–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–27
Eesti 200 0 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–10 6–10 5–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.1%  
27 10% 96%  
28 16% 86%  
29 13% 70%  
30 22% 57% Median
31 23% 34%  
32 5% 11%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.2% 2% Last Result
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8% Last Result
20 5% 98%  
21 11% 93%  
22 7% 82%  
23 12% 75%  
24 15% 63% Median
25 23% 49%  
26 24% 26%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 6% 98%  
20 13% 92%  
21 29% 78% Median
22 22% 49%  
23 11% 27%  
24 11% 16%  
25 3% 5%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 4% 99.5%  
14 11% 96%  
15 23% 84%  
16 28% 62% Median
17 22% 33%  
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 15% 98.9%  
7 43% 84% Median
8 26% 41%  
9 10% 16%  
10 5% 6% Last Result
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 11% 50%  
5 33% 39%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 72–78 71–79 70–80 69–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 98% 53–59 51–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 87% 50–57 49–57 48–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 64% 48–54 48–55 47–56 46–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 16% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.8% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 36–43 36–43 35–44 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 28–36 28–36 27–37 27–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 29–35 28–36 28–36 27–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 29–34 28–34 27–34 26–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 25–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.3%  
71 3% 97%  
72 10% 94%  
73 14% 84%  
74 9% 69%  
75 16% 60% Median
76 8% 44%  
77 14% 36%  
78 13% 22%  
79 6% 9% Last Result
80 2% 3%  
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.5% 99.6%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 5% 95%  
53 5% 90%  
54 11% 85% Median
55 12% 74%  
56 16% 62%  
57 21% 46%  
58 11% 25%  
59 9% 14%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.8% 0.9%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0.8% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 6% 97%  
50 4% 91%  
51 9% 87% Majority
52 15% 78%  
53 12% 64% Last Result
54 15% 52% Median
55 10% 37%  
56 13% 27%  
57 9% 13%  
58 3% 4%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.8%  
47 3% 98.9%  
48 10% 96%  
49 9% 86%  
50 13% 77%  
51 14% 64% Median, Majority
52 26% 51%  
53 7% 25%  
54 9% 18%  
55 5% 9%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 4% 97%  
45 5% 93% Median
46 11% 88%  
47 19% 76%  
48 14% 57%  
49 20% 44%  
50 8% 23%  
51 9% 16% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 6% 97%  
43 7% 91%  
44 16% 84%  
45 15% 68% Last Result, Median
46 18% 53%  
47 16% 35%  
48 11% 19%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.8% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.0% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.8%  
36 7% 97%  
37 8% 90% Median
38 21% 82%  
39 8% 60%  
40 19% 52%  
41 11% 33%  
42 11% 22%  
43 7% 12%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.2%  
34 5% 96%  
35 12% 90%  
36 18% 78%  
37 15% 60% Median
38 25% 45%  
39 8% 19%  
40 7% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.5% 100%  
27 3% 99.5%  
28 16% 97% Median
29 9% 81%  
30 8% 72%  
31 10% 64%  
32 17% 54%  
33 13% 37%  
34 9% 24%  
35 5% 16%  
36 7% 11%  
37 2% 3%  
38 1.1% 1.5%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 7% 98%  
29 4% 91%  
30 11% 87% Median
31 21% 75%  
32 11% 54%  
33 15% 44%  
34 12% 29%  
35 9% 17%  
36 6% 8%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 4% 97%  
29 14% 93% Last Result
30 13% 79%  
31 14% 66% Median
32 20% 52%  
33 19% 32%  
34 11% 13%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.6% 1.2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 5% 98.8%  
27 15% 94%  
28 27% 79% Median
29 16% 52%  
30 10% 36%  
31 10% 26%  
32 8% 16%  
33 5% 9%  
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations