Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–18 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.4% 25.7–29.2% 25.2–29.8% 24.8–30.2% 24.0–31.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.7% 17.2–20.3% 16.8–20.7% 16.4–21.1% 15.7–21.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.7% 14.3–17.2% 14.0–17.7% 13.6–18.0% 13.0–18.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.7% 14.3–17.2% 14.0–17.7% 13.6–18.0% 13.0–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 29–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–12 9–13 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 2% 99.8%  
28 6% 98%  
29 17% 92%  
30 29% 75% Median
31 14% 45%  
32 11% 32%  
33 11% 20%  
34 6% 9% Last Result
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.0% 100%  
17 3% 98.9%  
18 11% 96%  
19 12% 85% Last Result
20 25% 73% Median
21 33% 48%  
22 9% 14%  
23 5% 5%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 6% 99.3%  
15 16% 93%  
16 24% 77%  
17 35% 53% Median
18 12% 18%  
19 5% 6%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 6% 98.8%  
15 13% 93%  
16 29% 80%  
17 24% 50% Median
18 17% 26%  
19 8% 9%  
20 1.0% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 10% 98%  
10 31% 88% Last Result
11 39% 57% Median
12 13% 18%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.6% 99.6%  
5 13% 99.0%  
6 49% 86% Median
7 27% 36%  
8 9% 10%  
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 67 100% 65–70 65–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 100% 55–59 55–61 54–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 59% 49–53 48–54 47–54 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 8% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 6% 45–50 45–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 31–35 31–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.8% 99.8%  
64 3% 99.0%  
65 8% 96%  
66 21% 88%  
67 18% 67% Median
68 23% 50%  
69 15% 27%  
70 8% 11%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.6% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.7% 99.9%  
53 1.3% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 7% 96%  
56 20% 89% Median
57 30% 69%  
58 18% 39%  
59 13% 21%  
60 3% 8%  
61 4% 5%  
62 1.1% 1.4%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 4% 97%  
49 14% 93%  
50 21% 80% Median
51 23% 59% Majority
52 17% 36%  
53 12% 19% Last Result
54 5% 7%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.1%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.2%  
45 7% 96%  
46 17% 89%  
47 20% 72% Median
48 22% 52%  
49 10% 30%  
50 12% 20%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 1.5% 99.8%  
44 3% 98%  
45 13% 95%  
46 22% 82%  
47 21% 60% Median
48 14% 39%  
49 9% 25%  
50 9% 16%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.0%  
40 7% 96%  
41 10% 89%  
42 18% 79%  
43 15% 61% Median
44 27% 46%  
45 9% 18%  
46 7% 9%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.8%  
38 4% 98.8%  
39 12% 95%  
40 13% 82%  
41 26% 69% Median
42 16% 43%  
43 10% 27%  
44 10% 17% Last Result
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 1.5% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 10% 94%  
36 30% 84% Median
37 18% 54%  
38 12% 35%  
39 12% 24%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.5% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 3% 98.8%  
34 8% 95%  
35 11% 88%  
36 21% 76%  
37 21% 55% Median
38 20% 34%  
39 8% 14%  
40 5% 6%  
41 1.1% 1.4%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 4% 99.1%  
31 7% 96%  
32 15% 89%  
33 22% 74%  
34 29% 52% Median
35 13% 22%  
36 6% 10%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.2% 100%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 6% 97%  
29 13% 91% Last Result
30 19% 79%  
31 23% 60% Median
32 18% 37%  
33 15% 19%  
34 3% 4%  
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.0%  
25 5% 94%  
26 17% 88%  
27 33% 72%  
28 23% 39% Median
29 10% 16%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations