Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 19–25 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.8% 29.9–33.7% 29.4–34.3% 29.0–34.8% 28.1–35.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 34–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–23 20–25 19–25 18–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.4%  
33 6% 97%  
34 18% 91% Last Result
35 26% 73% Median
36 14% 47%  
37 9% 32%  
38 9% 24%  
39 9% 15%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.8% 1.4%  
42 0.1% 0.6%  
43 0.5% 0.5%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.9%  
19 2% 98.5% Last Result
20 13% 97%  
21 25% 83%  
22 33% 58% Median
23 15% 25%  
24 4% 10%  
25 5% 6%  
26 0.6% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.6%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 3% 98.6%  
17 12% 95%  
18 14% 84%  
19 16% 70%  
20 42% 54% Median
21 3% 12%  
22 7% 8%  
23 1.4% 1.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 4% 99.8%  
12 10% 95%  
13 25% 85%  
14 34% 60% Median
15 6% 26%  
16 19% 20%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 30% 99.4%  
6 31% 69% Median
7 29% 38%  
8 7% 9%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 0% 81%  
2 0% 81%  
3 0% 81%  
4 23% 81%  
5 38% 58% Median
6 17% 20%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 74–80 74–81 73–81 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 58–65 58–66 58–66 57–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–61 54–62 54–63 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 98% 53–58 52–59 51–59 49–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 1.2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–46 39–46 39–47 37–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 37–45 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–43 36–43 35–45 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 27–32 26–33 23–33 23–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–28 22–29 22–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 2% 99.2%  
74 7% 97%  
75 20% 90%  
76 18% 70%  
77 25% 52% Median
78 4% 27%  
79 6% 23% Last Result
80 9% 17%  
81 7% 8%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.8%  
58 10% 98.8%  
59 12% 89%  
60 5% 77%  
61 13% 71%  
62 22% 59% Median
63 14% 36%  
64 10% 22%  
65 7% 12% Last Result
66 5% 6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.7% Last Result
54 5% 98.5%  
55 16% 94%  
56 5% 77%  
57 33% 72% Median
58 9% 40%  
59 8% 31%  
60 7% 23%  
61 10% 16%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.8% 1.4%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.3%  
51 1.4% 98% Majority
52 5% 97%  
53 12% 92%  
54 16% 80%  
55 34% 64% Median
56 7% 30%  
57 12% 23%  
58 3% 11%  
59 7% 9%  
60 1.4% 2% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 3% 99.2%  
43 2% 96%  
44 21% 94%  
45 22% 73%  
46 11% 51% Median
47 8% 40%  
48 16% 32%  
49 8% 16%  
50 6% 7%  
51 0.6% 1.2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.5%  
40 3% 98.6%  
41 2% 96%  
42 13% 94%  
43 5% 81%  
44 8% 77%  
45 22% 69%  
46 10% 46%  
47 29% 36% Median
48 4% 8%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 0.6% 99.4%  
39 4% 98.7%  
40 34% 95%  
41 6% 60% Median
42 18% 54%  
43 8% 36%  
44 11% 28% Last Result
45 6% 16%  
46 7% 10%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.2% 1.1%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 1.3% 99.7%  
37 4% 98%  
38 7% 95%  
39 3% 87%  
40 23% 84%  
41 15% 61%  
42 31% 46% Median
43 7% 15%  
44 3% 8%  
45 5% 6% Last Result
46 0.6% 0.9%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 3% 99.5%  
36 3% 96%  
37 6% 93%  
38 18% 88%  
39 11% 70%  
40 23% 59% Median
41 5% 35%  
42 17% 30%  
43 8% 13%  
44 1.4% 5%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 0.7% 97%  
25 1.0% 97%  
26 4% 96%  
27 14% 92%  
28 5% 78%  
29 11% 73%  
30 34% 62%  
31 15% 29% Median
32 6% 14%  
33 6% 7%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 5% 99.1%  
26 7% 94%  
27 40% 87%  
28 12% 47% Median
29 16% 35% Last Result
30 8% 19%  
31 8% 11%  
32 1.5% 3%  
33 0.5% 1.4%  
34 0.9% 0.9%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 7% 99.6%  
23 9% 92%  
24 8% 84%  
25 34% 76%  
26 19% 42% Median
27 11% 24%  
28 4% 13%  
29 8% 9%  
30 1.0% 1.0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations