Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 26–31 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 6% 98%  
31 9% 92%  
32 17% 83%  
33 28% 65% Median
34 18% 37% Last Result
35 8% 20%  
36 8% 11%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 8% 98%  
21 12% 90%  
22 25% 79%  
23 27% 54% Median
24 15% 27%  
25 9% 12%  
26 2% 3% Last Result
27 1.0% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 7% 98% Last Result
20 13% 91%  
21 24% 78%  
22 28% 54% Median
23 16% 26%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 4% 99.3%  
10 14% 95%  
11 44% 81% Median
12 28% 37%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.9% 1.2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 10% 99.2%  
7 34% 89%  
8 36% 55% Median
9 16% 19%  
10 3% 3% Last Result
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 9% 91%  
5 54% 82% Median
6 24% 28%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 77 100% 75–80 74–81 74–82 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–62 56–63 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.7% 53–58 52–59 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 98% 52–57 52–58 51–60 49–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 22% 46–52 46–52 45–52 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.6% 43–48 42–49 42–49 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0.1% 42–47 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–41 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 30–39 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 1.2% 99.7%  
74 5% 98.6%  
75 6% 93%  
76 21% 87%  
77 27% 66%  
78 17% 39% Median
79 9% 22% Last Result
80 5% 13%  
81 3% 8%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 3% 97%  
57 10% 94%  
58 15% 84%  
59 19% 69%  
60 17% 50% Median
61 19% 33%  
62 8% 14%  
63 5% 6%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.7% Majority
52 4% 98.6%  
53 7% 95%  
54 13% 88%  
55 19% 75%  
56 25% 56% Median
57 16% 31%  
58 8% 15%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 4% Last Result
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 0.9% 99.2%  
51 2% 98% Majority
52 11% 96%  
53 13% 85% Last Result
54 22% 72%  
55 15% 50% Median
56 17% 35%  
57 10% 18%  
58 4% 8%  
59 1.3% 4%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 1.3% 98%  
46 8% 97%  
47 17% 89%  
48 3% 72%  
49 27% 69%  
50 20% 41% Median
51 9% 22% Majority
52 11% 13%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 99.3%  
42 6% 98.6%  
43 7% 93%  
44 11% 86%  
45 25% 75%  
46 24% 50% Median
47 10% 27%  
48 9% 17%  
49 6% 7%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 1.0% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 98.8%  
41 6% 98%  
42 15% 92%  
43 4% 77%  
44 32% 72%  
45 15% 40% Last Result, Median
46 12% 25%  
47 10% 13%  
48 0.7% 3%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 3% 99.1%  
38 7% 96%  
39 19% 89%  
40 16% 71%  
41 22% 54% Median
42 12% 32%  
43 11% 20%  
44 7% 10% Last Result
45 2% 3%  
46 0.6% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.6%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 3% 97%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 88%  
37 12% 79%  
38 34% 67% Median
39 16% 33%  
40 7% 17%  
41 7% 10%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 0.6% 97%  
32 4% 97%  
33 7% 93%  
34 23% 86%  
35 19% 63%  
36 26% 43% Median
37 10% 17%  
38 3% 7%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.0% 1.4%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.9%  
27 5% 99.1%  
28 6% 94%  
29 21% 88%  
30 23% 67%  
31 22% 45% Median
32 13% 22%  
33 4% 9%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.5% 99.8%  
26 4% 98%  
27 8% 95%  
28 18% 87%  
29 29% 69% Last Result
30 16% 40% Median
31 13% 23%  
32 8% 11%  
33 1.2% 3%  
34 1.2% 1.4%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations