Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–7 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.9–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–24.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 30–35 30–36 30–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–24 20–25 19–26 18–27
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 10% 98%  
31 9% 87%  
32 24% 78%  
33 13% 54% Median
34 20% 41% Last Result
35 15% 21%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 3% 99.1% Last Result
20 5% 96%  
21 11% 91%  
22 28% 79%  
23 24% 51% Median
24 20% 28%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 1.0% 1.3%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.8%  
19 5% 99.1%  
20 20% 94%  
21 17% 75%  
22 25% 58% Median
23 19% 32%  
24 7% 14%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.4% 2% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 7% 98%  
13 17% 91%  
14 36% 74% Median
15 25% 38%  
16 8% 13%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.6% 99.7%  
5 20% 99.1%  
6 45% 79% Median
7 26% 34%  
8 7% 8%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100%  
1 0% 71%  
2 0% 71%  
3 0% 71%  
4 26% 71% Median
5 38% 45%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 74–81 74–81 74–82 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 55–62 54–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.4% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 98% 52–58 52–59 51–59 50–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 9% 45–50 44–51 43–51 41–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.2% 42–47 41–48 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 37–42 36–42 36–43 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–39 33–40 32–40 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 28–34 27–35 26–35 25–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–32 25–32 23–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.4%  
74 12% 98%  
75 6% 86%  
76 23% 80%  
77 16% 57%  
78 17% 42% Median
79 3% 25% Last Result
80 12% 22%  
81 6% 10%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 4% 97%  
56 7% 94%  
57 9% 86%  
58 23% 78%  
59 15% 55%  
60 16% 39% Median
61 15% 23%  
62 5% 7%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.4% Majority
52 6% 98%  
53 9% 92% Last Result
54 20% 84%  
55 14% 64%  
56 24% 50% Median
57 10% 26%  
58 7% 16%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.4%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.2% 99.7%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 11% 96%  
53 12% 84%  
54 27% 72%  
55 14% 45% Median
56 10% 31%  
57 8% 21%  
58 7% 13%  
59 5% 6%  
60 0.8% 2% Last Result
61 0.7% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.9%  
44 5% 97%  
45 10% 93%  
46 12% 83%  
47 21% 70%  
48 9% 49%  
49 10% 40% Median
50 21% 29%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.4%  
41 7% 98%  
42 20% 91%  
43 7% 71%  
44 13% 64%  
45 14% 52% Last Result, Median
46 26% 37%  
47 5% 11%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.8% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 13% 94%  
41 24% 81%  
42 11% 57%  
43 7% 46% Median
44 15% 39%  
45 18% 25%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.4%  
36 8% 98%  
37 21% 90%  
38 8% 69%  
39 13% 61% Median
40 21% 48%  
41 17% 27%  
42 6% 10%  
43 1.3% 4%  
44 2% 2% Last Result
45 0.4% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 1.4% 98.9%  
32 2% 98%  
33 6% 95%  
34 12% 89%  
35 15% 77%  
36 16% 62%  
37 15% 46% Median
38 9% 31%  
39 15% 22%  
40 5% 7%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 4% 97%  
28 7% 93%  
29 4% 86%  
30 9% 82%  
31 23% 74%  
32 19% 51% Median
33 18% 32%  
34 9% 14%  
35 3% 5%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.2%  
26 7% 98%  
27 10% 91%  
28 28% 81%  
29 22% 54% Last Result, Median
30 18% 31%  
31 8% 13%  
32 3% 5%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 1.0% 99.4%  
25 5% 98%  
26 17% 93%  
27 14% 77%  
28 28% 63% Median
29 17% 35%  
30 7% 17%  
31 4% 10%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.6% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations