Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 3–10 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 24–29 23–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 7% 97%  
25 14% 90%  
26 22% 76%  
27 24% 54% Median
28 17% 30%  
29 9% 13%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.0% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 8% 96%  
24 17% 88%  
25 26% 72% Median
26 21% 45%  
27 14% 24%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 8% 98%  
19 18% 90%  
20 21% 72%  
21 29% 52% Median
22 15% 23%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.5% 0.6%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.8% 100%  
11 7% 99.1%  
12 20% 93%  
13 31% 72% Median
14 24% 41%  
15 13% 17%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.6% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 11% 98.9%  
8 31% 88%  
9 36% 57% Median
10 16% 21% Last Result
11 4% 5%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 12% 99.2%  
6 39% 87% Median
7 35% 48%  
8 11% 13%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 70–75 70–75 69–76 68–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 55–61 55–62 54–63
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 84% 50–55 49–55 49–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 79% 50–55 49–55 48–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 4% 45–50 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.7% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 27–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 3% 99.1%  
70 8% 96%  
71 13% 88%  
72 23% 74%  
73 25% 52% Median
74 13% 27%  
75 10% 14%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.3% 99.6%  
55 4% 98%  
56 9% 95%  
57 13% 86%  
58 23% 73% Median
59 19% 50%  
60 15% 31%  
61 11% 16%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 5% 98%  
50 9% 93%  
51 15% 84% Majority
52 23% 69% Median
53 19% 46%  
54 14% 27%  
55 7% 12%  
56 4% 5%  
57 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 6% 97%  
50 12% 91%  
51 17% 79% Majority
52 20% 62% Median
53 19% 41% Last Result
54 12% 23%  
55 7% 10%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.9% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.3%  
44 5% 97%  
45 12% 92%  
46 16% 80%  
47 22% 64%  
48 20% 43% Median
49 13% 23%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 3% 98.9%  
43 7% 96%  
44 13% 90%  
45 19% 77% Last Result
46 22% 58% Median
47 17% 36%  
48 11% 19%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 3% 99.0%  
39 7% 96%  
40 13% 90%  
41 17% 77%  
42 25% 60% Median
43 16% 35%  
44 10% 18%  
45 6% 9%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 3% 99.0%  
33 8% 96%  
34 16% 88%  
35 16% 72%  
36 24% 56% Median
37 17% 32%  
38 10% 15%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.1% 99.7%  
32 4% 98.6%  
33 10% 94%  
34 15% 85%  
35 22% 70%  
36 23% 48% Median
37 12% 25%  
38 8% 13%  
39 3% 4%  
40 1.0% 1.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
30 1.4% 99.5%  
31 5% 98%  
32 11% 93%  
33 18% 82%  
34 25% 63% Median
35 16% 38%  
36 13% 22%  
37 7% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 93%  
32 18% 83%  
33 25% 65% Median
34 18% 41%  
35 14% 23%  
36 6% 9%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.7%  
26 4% 98.9%  
27 15% 95%  
28 15% 80%  
29 19% 65%  
30 27% 46% Median
31 12% 20%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations