Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–14 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.6% 24.9–28.5% 24.4–29.0% 23.9–29.4% 23.1–30.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.5% 23.8–27.3% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.4% 15.8–22.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–31 25–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 11 10–12 9–12 8–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.4%  
27 9% 95%  
28 16% 86%  
29 30% 70% Median
30 14% 39%  
31 15% 26%  
32 6% 11%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.2% 2% Last Result
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 4% 98%  
26 15% 94%  
27 19% 80%  
28 14% 60% Median
29 20% 46%  
30 15% 26%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.7% 1.0%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.2%  
18 9% 97%  
19 22% 88%  
20 23% 66% Median
21 19% 43%  
22 18% 24%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.0% 1.2%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 4% 97%  
10 27% 93%  
11 42% 65% Median
12 20% 24%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 7% 99.8%  
7 34% 93%  
8 31% 58% Median
9 19% 27%  
10 7% 8% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 0% 85%  
2 0% 85%  
3 0% 85%  
4 4% 85%  
5 55% 81% Median
6 25% 27%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–80 75–81 74–82 74–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–65 59–65 58–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–61 54–62 54–63 53–64
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 85% 50–56 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 31% 47–52 46–53 46–53 44–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 48 16% 46–51 45–52 45–52 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–45 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 33–39 33–40 33–41 31–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 29–35 28–36 27–36 26–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 3% 99.5%  
75 9% 97%  
76 10% 88%  
77 29% 77% Median
78 13% 49%  
79 19% 36% Last Result
80 7% 17%  
81 5% 10%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.7% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 7% 97%  
60 13% 90%  
61 20% 77%  
62 18% 58% Median
63 19% 39%  
64 8% 21%  
65 8% 12% Last Result
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
54 4% 98.9%  
55 16% 94%  
56 13% 78%  
57 17% 65% Median
58 20% 48%  
59 10% 28%  
60 6% 18%  
61 6% 12%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 2% 99.2%  
49 5% 97%  
50 7% 92%  
51 14% 85% Majority
52 14% 71%  
53 9% 57% Median
54 19% 48%  
55 16% 29%  
56 10% 13%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.8% 0.9%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 4% 98%  
47 5% 93%  
48 16% 88%  
49 16% 72% Median
50 25% 56%  
51 18% 31% Majority
52 6% 12%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.5%  
45 4% 98% Last Result
46 12% 94%  
47 17% 83%  
48 18% 66% Median
49 17% 48%  
50 16% 32%  
51 11% 16% Majority
52 3% 5%  
53 1.4% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.3% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 95%  
40 15% 88%  
41 16% 74%  
42 23% 58% Median
43 20% 35%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.9% 99.9%  
34 5% 98.9%  
35 15% 94%  
36 23% 79%  
37 15% 56% Median
38 17% 41%  
39 10% 24%  
40 5% 14%  
41 5% 9%  
42 4% 4%  
43 0.7% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.8% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.1%  
33 8% 98%  
34 16% 90%  
35 16% 74%  
36 18% 57% Median
37 17% 39%  
38 8% 23%  
39 6% 14%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 4% 97%  
31 7% 93%  
32 9% 86%  
33 15% 76%  
34 24% 62% Median
35 18% 38%  
36 12% 20%  
37 5% 8%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 2% 97%  
29 6% 95%  
30 6% 89%  
31 6% 83%  
32 17% 77%  
33 22% 60% Median
34 23% 38%  
35 9% 15%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.7% 1.3%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 5% 98%  
26 11% 93%  
27 16% 83%  
28 24% 66% Median
29 23% 42%  
30 10% 19%  
31 7% 9%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations