Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 10–16 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.0–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 19–25 18–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.8%  
25 3% 98.7%  
26 10% 96%  
27 16% 86%  
28 27% 70% Median
29 20% 42%  
30 12% 22%  
31 7% 10%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 4% 98.9% Last Result
20 11% 95%  
21 22% 84%  
22 24% 62% Median
23 21% 38%  
24 12% 17%  
25 4% 6%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 7% 98%  
18 16% 91%  
19 24% 76%  
20 27% 51% Median
21 16% 25%  
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 10% 98%  
16 18% 88%  
17 29% 70% Median
18 25% 41%  
19 10% 16%  
20 6% 7%  
21 0.8% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100% Last Result
11 5% 99.4%  
12 15% 95%  
13 28% 80%  
14 28% 52% Median
15 17% 23%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 4% 8%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 67–72 67–73 66–73 64–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 51 54% 48–53 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 47% 48–53 47–54 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 9% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 36 0% 33–38 32–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–36 30–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 31–35 30–36 30–37 28–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–33 24–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 1.4% 99.4%  
66 3% 98%  
67 6% 95%  
68 12% 89%  
69 18% 77%  
70 21% 59% Median
71 19% 38%  
72 11% 19%  
73 6% 8%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 1.3% 99.6%  
47 3% 98%  
48 7% 95%  
49 16% 88%  
50 18% 71% Median
51 20% 54% Majority
52 17% 34%  
53 9% 17%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 4% 97%  
48 9% 93%  
49 18% 84%  
50 18% 65% Median
51 19% 47% Majority
52 16% 28%  
53 7% 12% Last Result
54 4% 5%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 3% 98%  
45 7% 95%  
46 16% 89%  
47 13% 73%  
48 26% 60% Median
49 14% 34%  
50 11% 20%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.9% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.8%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 6% 95%  
40 12% 89%  
41 18% 78%  
42 22% 59% Median
43 18% 37%  
44 10% 19%  
45 5% 9%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 1.3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 4% 97%  
40 11% 94%  
41 19% 83%  
42 25% 64% Median
43 16% 39%  
44 9% 23%  
45 8% 14%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.6%  
39 5% 96%  
40 13% 92%  
41 21% 79%  
42 26% 58% Median
43 16% 32%  
44 7% 17% Last Result
45 6% 10%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.8% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 13% 86%  
41 19% 72%  
42 22% 53% Median
43 17% 31%  
44 9% 14%  
45 4% 6% Last Result
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.8%  
32 4% 98.7%  
33 6% 95%  
34 16% 88%  
35 21% 72%  
36 21% 52% Median
37 14% 31%  
38 11% 17%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 4% 98%  
31 9% 95%  
32 19% 86%  
33 19% 67%  
34 19% 48% Median
35 16% 29%  
36 7% 14%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 5% 98%  
31 11% 93%  
32 21% 82%  
33 20% 61%  
34 19% 41% Median
35 14% 23%  
36 6% 9% Last Result
37 3% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.0%  
26 8% 97%  
27 15% 88%  
28 25% 74% Median
29 20% 49%  
30 12% 29%  
31 8% 16%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.8% 1.2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations