Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.9% 17.4–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 30–35 30–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 18–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 7% 96%  
31 15% 89%  
32 16% 74%  
33 21% 58% Median
34 19% 37% Last Result
35 11% 18%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.8% Last Result
20 4% 98.8%  
21 11% 95%  
22 19% 84%  
23 23% 65% Median
24 21% 41%  
25 13% 20%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 8% 98%  
19 16% 90%  
20 24% 74%  
21 24% 50% Median
22 17% 27%  
23 6% 10%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 11% 97%  
13 25% 86%  
14 30% 61% Median
15 20% 31%  
16 8% 11%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 7% 99.5%  
8 27% 92%  
9 34% 65% Median
10 23% 31% Last Result
11 7% 8%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 15% 36%  
5 18% 20%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 73–79 73–80 72–80 71–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 100% 55–60 54–61 53–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.3% 53–59 52–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 89% 50–56 50–57 49–57 48–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 1.0% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0% 41–46 40–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0.1% 40–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–38 31–38 30–39 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–35 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–34 27–35 27–36 26–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 1.3% 99.6%  
72 3% 98%  
73 6% 95%  
74 10% 89%  
75 11% 78%  
76 16% 68%  
77 16% 52% Median
78 16% 36%  
79 11% 20% Last Result
80 7% 9%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.3%  
54 5% 97%  
55 7% 92%  
56 15% 85% Median
57 17% 70%  
58 20% 53%  
59 16% 34%  
60 10% 18%  
61 5% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.3% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 8% 94% Last Result
54 13% 86%  
55 15% 74%  
56 17% 58% Median
57 16% 41%  
58 13% 26%  
59 7% 12%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.0% 99.5%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 11% 89% Majority
52 12% 78%  
53 17% 66%  
54 19% 49% Median
55 13% 30%  
56 9% 17%  
57 5% 7%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.1% 99.7%  
41 3% 98.6%  
42 5% 96%  
43 11% 91%  
44 16% 79% Median
45 18% 63%  
46 15% 45%  
47 12% 30%  
48 9% 17%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.0% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.5% 99.3%  
40 4% 98%  
41 10% 94%  
42 12% 84%  
43 17% 72%  
44 19% 54% Median
45 17% 35% Last Result
46 9% 18%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 1.1% 99.8%  
39 2% 98.8%  
40 6% 96%  
41 8% 90%  
42 16% 82% Median
43 17% 66%  
44 17% 49%  
45 14% 32%  
46 8% 17%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.2% 1.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.5%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 94%  
40 14% 86%  
41 17% 73%  
42 18% 56% Median
43 17% 38%  
44 12% 21% Last Result
45 5% 9%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.1%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1%  
31 6% 96%  
32 9% 90%  
33 16% 81% Median
34 17% 65%  
35 17% 48%  
36 11% 31%  
37 9% 20%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 5%  
40 0.9% 1.4%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 5% 97% Last Result
30 12% 92%  
31 19% 80%  
32 17% 61% Median
33 22% 44%  
34 12% 22%  
35 7% 11%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.9% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.1% 99.7%  
27 4% 98.7%  
28 7% 95%  
29 13% 88%  
30 18% 75% Median
31 15% 58%  
32 16% 43%  
33 10% 27%  
34 9% 17%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.7%  
27 10% 95%  
28 14% 85%  
29 21% 71%  
30 21% 50% Median
31 15% 29%  
32 10% 14%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations