Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 June–4 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 20–25 20–26 19–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 12 10–13 10–13 9–14 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 9% 97%  
32 9% 88%  
33 25% 79%  
34 11% 54% Last Result, Median
35 24% 43%  
36 11% 18%  
37 5% 8%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.5% Last Result
20 9% 98%  
21 25% 89%  
22 24% 64% Median
23 18% 40%  
24 14% 22%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.8%  
19 8% 98.9%  
20 18% 91%  
21 23% 73% Median
22 24% 50%  
23 15% 26%  
24 8% 11%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 16% 96%  
11 27% 80%  
12 32% 53% Median
13 17% 21%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 11% 99.5%  
6 40% 88% Median
7 32% 49%  
8 14% 16%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 5% 95%  
5 46% 90% Median
6 34% 44%  
7 9% 10%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 76–80 75–81 74–82 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 59–64 58–64 58–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.9% 53–59 53–60 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 99.7% 53–58 52–59 51–60 51–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 26% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.5% 43–48 42–49 42–49 40–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 44 0.1% 42–46 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–42 36–42 35–42 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 27–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 24–34
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 3% 99.8%  
75 6% 97%  
76 13% 92%  
77 30% 79% Median
78 25% 49%  
79 11% 24% Last Result
80 6% 13%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.4%  
58 4% 98%  
59 13% 94%  
60 13% 81%  
61 17% 68% Median
62 20% 51%  
63 20% 31%  
64 7% 11%  
65 3% 4% Last Result
66 0.7% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9% Majority
52 4% 99.3%  
53 8% 95% Last Result
54 7% 87%  
55 15% 81%  
56 20% 65% Median
57 24% 45%  
58 11% 22%  
59 5% 11%  
60 4% 5%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 3% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 97%  
53 10% 94%  
54 17% 84%  
55 17% 66% Median
56 20% 49%  
57 17% 29%  
58 7% 13%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 0.8% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.8%  
45 2% 98.7%  
46 5% 96%  
47 8% 92%  
48 29% 83% Median
49 19% 55%  
50 11% 36%  
51 15% 26% Majority
52 6% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.6% 1.2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 10% 87%  
45 24% 76% Median
46 19% 52%  
47 16% 33%  
48 9% 18%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0.8% 1.3%  
51 0.5% 0.5% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 6% 98.9%  
42 22% 93%  
43 19% 71% Median
44 19% 52%  
45 13% 32% Last Result
46 11% 19%  
47 3% 7%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.9% 1.3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 5% 98%  
38 8% 93%  
39 16% 85%  
40 21% 68% Median
41 19% 47%  
42 14% 28%  
43 8% 14%  
44 4% 6% Last Result
45 2% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.5%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 7% 96%  
37 9% 90%  
38 20% 81%  
39 18% 61% Median
40 13% 43%  
41 17% 29%  
42 10% 12%  
43 1.5% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.8%  
28 0.6% 99.4%  
29 2% 98.8%  
30 5% 97%  
31 9% 91%  
32 9% 82% Median
33 30% 73%  
34 18% 42%  
35 9% 25%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.4%  
26 6% 98%  
27 20% 92%  
28 21% 73% Median
29 15% 52% Last Result
30 18% 37%  
31 12% 19%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 1.1% 99.7%  
25 7% 98.6%  
26 8% 91%  
27 21% 84% Median
28 26% 63%  
29 17% 37%  
30 11% 20%  
31 5% 9%  
32 4% 4%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations