Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–12 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.2% 21.0–28.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 7% 97%  
30 13% 91%  
31 20% 78%  
32 23% 58% Median
33 18% 35%  
34 10% 17% Last Result
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 8% 97%  
25 17% 88%  
26 23% 71% Median
27 23% 48%  
28 15% 25%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.8%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 7% 98%  
17 19% 91%  
18 25% 73% Median
19 26% 47%  
20 14% 21%  
21 5% 7%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 15% 96%  
12 30% 81%  
13 28% 51% Median
14 17% 23%  
15 5% 7%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 1.0% 99.7%  
5 17% 98.8%  
6 42% 82% Median
7 31% 40%  
8 8% 9%  
9 0.9% 1.0%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 5% 97%  
5 40% 92%  
6 40% 51% Median
7 10% 12%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–79 74–80 73–80 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–66 61–67 60–67 59–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 56–61 55–61 55–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 44% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 46% 48–53 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.3% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 35–41 35–42 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 35–40 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–36 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.3%  
74 7% 97%  
75 14% 90%  
76 22% 76% Median
77 26% 54%  
78 15% 29%  
79 8% 13% Last Result
80 3% 6%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.6%  
60 3% 98.6%  
61 7% 95%  
62 13% 88%  
63 20% 75%  
64 21% 56% Median
65 19% 35% Last Result
66 10% 16%  
67 4% 6%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
54 2% 99.4%  
55 4% 98%  
56 12% 93%  
57 16% 82%  
58 20% 66% Median
59 22% 47%  
60 14% 25%  
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.4%  
47 5% 98%  
48 10% 92%  
49 17% 82%  
50 21% 65% Median
51 18% 44% Majority
52 15% 26%  
53 7% 12%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 5% 97%  
48 10% 92%  
49 14% 82%  
50 22% 68% Median
51 20% 46% Majority
52 14% 26%  
53 7% 12%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 6% 96%  
43 14% 89%  
44 19% 76% Median
45 21% 57% Last Result
46 18% 37%  
47 11% 19%  
48 5% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.7% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 3% 98%  
41 9% 95%  
42 14% 86%  
43 19% 72%  
44 23% 53% Median
45 14% 30%  
46 10% 16%  
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 5% 98%  
36 11% 92%  
37 17% 81%  
38 23% 64% Median
39 19% 41%  
40 12% 22%  
41 7% 10%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.7% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 4% 97%  
35 10% 93%  
36 14% 82%  
37 21% 68%  
38 23% 47% Median
39 13% 24%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.0% 1.3%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.1% Last Result
30 7% 97%  
31 14% 90%  
32 23% 76% Median
33 21% 54%  
34 17% 33%  
35 9% 16%  
36 5% 7%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.9% 99.5%  
26 2% 98.7%  
27 4% 97%  
28 10% 93%  
29 17% 83%  
30 24% 66% Median
31 21% 42%  
32 12% 21%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 7% 98%  
23 14% 91%  
24 23% 77% Median
25 23% 54%  
26 18% 31%  
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 1.0% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations