Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–19 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.5% 27.7–31.4% 27.2–31.9% 26.7–32.4% 25.9–33.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 10% 95%  
31 17% 85%  
32 21% 68% Median
33 22% 48%  
34 12% 25% Last Result
35 9% 13%  
36 3% 5%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.2%  
26 9% 96%  
27 18% 87%  
28 22% 69% Median
29 24% 47%  
30 13% 23%  
31 6% 10%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 5% 99.0%  
15 16% 94%  
16 27% 77% Median
17 26% 50%  
18 17% 24%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 19% 95%  
12 32% 76% Median
13 28% 44%  
14 12% 16%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 2% 99.6%  
5 21% 98%  
6 45% 77% Median
7 26% 32%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 6% 95%  
5 46% 89% Median
6 36% 44%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–80 75–80 74–82 73–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 66 100% 64–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–65 56–67
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 43% 47–53 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 21% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.3% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–31 22–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 18–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.8%  
74 3% 98.9%  
75 9% 96%  
76 19% 87% Median
77 27% 68%  
78 20% 41%  
79 11% 21% Last Result
80 6% 11%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 3%  
83 0.9% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 5% 97%  
64 13% 92%  
65 17% 79% Last Result, Median
66 25% 63%  
67 14% 38%  
68 15% 23%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.0% 99.8%  
57 3% 98.8%  
58 8% 96%  
59 13% 88%  
60 23% 75% Median
61 19% 52%  
62 15% 34%  
63 10% 19%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.8% 1.4%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.0% 99.6%  
46 3% 98.6%  
47 6% 96%  
48 9% 89%  
49 15% 81% Median
50 23% 66%  
51 19% 43% Majority
52 13% 25%  
53 7% 11%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.8% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 7% 97%  
47 13% 90%  
48 18% 77% Median
49 22% 59%  
50 16% 37%  
51 11% 21% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.2%  
42 8% 97%  
43 9% 89%  
44 20% 80% Median
45 24% 59% Last Result
46 17% 35%  
47 10% 18%  
48 5% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 11% 88%  
43 19% 76% Median
44 23% 58%  
45 18% 34%  
46 10% 17%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.6%  
35 4% 98.5%  
36 8% 94%  
37 15% 86%  
38 22% 71% Median
39 21% 49%  
40 13% 28%  
41 9% 15%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 1.2% 99.4%  
34 3% 98%  
35 8% 95%  
36 12% 87%  
37 20% 75% Median
38 24% 55%  
39 16% 31%  
40 9% 15%  
41 4% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
30 0.9% 99.7%  
31 3% 98.8%  
32 9% 96%  
33 16% 87%  
34 21% 71% Median
35 23% 50%  
36 14% 26%  
37 7% 12%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 0.6% 99.5%  
23 1.2% 98.9%  
24 2% 98%  
25 5% 95%  
26 11% 91%  
27 20% 79% Median
28 20% 59%  
29 21% 39%  
30 12% 18%  
31 4% 6%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.3% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.4%  
20 5% 98%  
21 17% 93%  
22 21% 75% Median
23 25% 54%  
24 19% 29%  
25 7% 10%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations