Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 14–22 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.6%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.0% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 28 26–30 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–27
Eesti 200 0 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.7%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 14% 95%  
27 19% 82%  
28 28% 63% Median
29 12% 35%  
30 13% 23%  
31 6% 9%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 4% 96%  
24 16% 92%  
25 17% 76%  
26 27% 59% Median
27 21% 31%  
28 6% 11%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.5% 1.0%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 7% 99.1%  
20 16% 92%  
21 2% 76%  
22 26% 75% Median
23 29% 48%  
24 17% 19%  
25 0.3% 2%  
26 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.6% 100%  
13 3% 99.4%  
14 15% 96%  
15 19% 81%  
16 33% 61% Median
17 16% 28%  
18 8% 11%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 9% 99.4%  
8 32% 90%  
9 36% 59% Median
10 15% 22% Last Result
11 7% 8%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 8% 11%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–78 73–79 72–79 70–80
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 54 94% 51–57 50–57 50–58 48–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 97% 52–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 44% 49–53 48–54 47–55 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 50 35% 48–52 47–54 46–54 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 7% 45–50 44–51 43–52 43–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 35 0% 33–37 31–38 31–39 30–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–34 28–35 27–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–36
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 26 0% 24–29 23–29 22–30 22–31

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 1.4% 99.4%  
72 3% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 10% 88%  
75 14% 78%  
76 23% 64% Median
77 21% 41%  
78 10% 20%  
79 8% 9% Last Result
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 3% 98%  
51 10% 94% Majority
52 13% 84%  
53 16% 71% Last Result
54 16% 56% Median
55 19% 39%  
56 7% 20%  
57 9% 13%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.0% 99.9%  
50 2% 98.8%  
51 6% 97% Majority
52 12% 91%  
53 14% 79%  
54 17% 65% Median
55 23% 48%  
56 9% 25%  
57 11% 16%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 1.2% 99.3%  
47 1.3% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 12% 94%  
50 37% 82% Median
51 18% 44% Majority
52 12% 26%  
53 5% 14%  
54 6% 9%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
46 2% 98.8%  
47 2% 97%  
48 7% 95%  
49 14% 88%  
50 39% 74% Median
51 17% 35% Majority
52 9% 18%  
53 2% 8%  
54 4% 6%  
55 2% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.5%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.6%  
44 3% 97%  
45 7% 95%  
46 13% 88%  
47 20% 75%  
48 18% 55% Median
49 10% 37%  
50 20% 27%  
51 3% 7% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 12% 97%  
35 9% 86%  
36 17% 77%  
37 25% 61% Median
38 16% 35%  
39 11% 20%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 4% 98%  
32 2% 94%  
33 9% 92%  
34 19% 84%  
35 29% 65% Median
36 21% 36%  
37 10% 15%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.3% 3%  
40 0.6% 1.4%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.5% 100%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 4% 97%  
32 4% 93%  
33 14% 89%  
34 20% 75%  
35 29% 55% Median
36 19% 27%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.8% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 4% 99.6%  
28 9% 96%  
29 5% 87%  
30 9% 81%  
31 24% 73% Median
32 21% 48%  
33 12% 28%  
34 10% 16%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.3%  
28 9% 95%  
29 6% 86%  
30 12% 79%  
31 28% 67% Median
32 21% 39%  
33 11% 18%  
34 6% 7%  
35 0.9% 1.4%  
36 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 3% 97%  
24 13% 94%  
25 14% 82%  
26 27% 68% Median
27 21% 40%  
28 8% 19%  
29 8% 11%  
30 1.1% 3%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.5%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations