Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–27 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.3% 29.6–37.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 22–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 15 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 6% 97% Last Result
35 11% 92%  
36 20% 81%  
37 23% 61% Median
38 19% 38%  
39 11% 19%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.1%  
22 11% 96%  
23 20% 85%  
24 24% 65% Median
25 24% 41%  
26 10% 17%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.5%  
13 15% 96%  
14 31% 81%  
15 23% 50% Median
16 20% 27%  
17 6% 7%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 12% 97%  
12 31% 85%  
13 32% 55% Median
14 16% 23%  
15 5% 7%  
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.8% 99.8%  
5 17% 99.0%  
6 42% 82% Median
7 31% 40%  
8 8% 9%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0.8% 99.8%  
5 15% 99.0%  
6 46% 83% Median
7 30% 38%  
8 7% 8%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–78 73–78 72–79 71–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 67 100% 65–70 64–70 64–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 61 100% 59–63 58–64 57–64 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 73% 49–54 49–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 49 30% 47–52 47–53 46–53 45–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.2% 43–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 41–46 40–46 40–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–46 40–47 38–48
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 21 0% 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.4%  
73 6% 97%  
74 12% 92%  
75 23% 79%  
76 25% 56% Median
77 17% 31%  
78 10% 14%  
79 3% 4% Last Result
80 0.6% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 1.2% 99.7%  
64 4% 98%  
65 8% 95% Last Result
66 16% 87%  
67 24% 71% Median
68 22% 47%  
69 13% 24%  
70 8% 11%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100% Last Result
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 5% 97%  
59 10% 92%  
60 17% 82%  
61 25% 65% Median
62 19% 40%  
63 12% 21%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.6%  
49 8% 95%  
50 14% 88%  
51 22% 73% Majority
52 21% 51% Median
53 15% 30%  
54 10% 16%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 1.1% 99.6%  
46 3% 98%  
47 9% 95%  
48 13% 86%  
49 25% 74% Median
50 19% 49%  
51 15% 30% Majority
52 9% 15%  
53 4% 6%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 6% 97%  
43 10% 92%  
44 20% 82%  
45 24% 62% Median
46 16% 38%  
47 13% 22%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.4% 99.5%  
40 4% 98%  
41 11% 94%  
42 17% 83%  
43 22% 66% Median
44 19% 44%  
45 14% 25%  
46 7% 11% Last Result
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 4% 98%  
41 9% 94%  
42 16% 85%  
43 25% 69% Median
44 20% 44% Last Result
45 13% 24%  
46 8% 11%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.8% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 6% 96%  
37 14% 90%  
38 22% 76%  
39 23% 55% Median
40 15% 32%  
41 11% 18%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 10% 96%  
29 17% 86% Last Result
30 21% 70% Median
31 23% 49%  
32 15% 26%  
33 8% 11%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 4% 98.8%  
25 9% 95%  
26 20% 86%  
27 22% 66% Median
28 22% 44%  
29 14% 22%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.7% 99.8%  
18 5% 99.1%  
19 11% 95%  
20 22% 84%  
21 26% 61% Median
22 22% 36%  
23 9% 14%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations