Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 July–2 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–34 29–35 28–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.4% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 7% 97%  
30 11% 91%  
31 19% 79%  
32 24% 60% Median
33 20% 37%  
34 10% 17% Last Result
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 12% 94%  
26 21% 82%  
27 23% 61% Median
28 19% 38%  
29 11% 19%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.8%  
16 6% 98.5%  
17 17% 93%  
18 26% 76% Median
19 26% 50%  
20 15% 23%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.9%  
10 9% 98.6%  
11 30% 90%  
12 30% 60% Median
13 20% 30%  
14 8% 10%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 27% 95%  
7 41% 68% Median
8 22% 27%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 12% 90%  
5 55% 78% Median
6 19% 23%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 77 100% 75–80 75–81 74–82 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 64 100% 61–66 60–67 60–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–62 56–62 55–63 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 49% 48–53 47–54 47–55 45–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 46% 48–53 47–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 1.0% 43–48 42–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–39 33–40 32–40 30–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 30 0% 28–33 27–33 26–34 24–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.8%  
74 4% 98.8%  
75 10% 95%  
76 16% 85%  
77 24% 69% Median
78 18% 45%  
79 14% 27% Last Result
80 5% 13%  
81 3% 8%  
82 3% 4%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.3% 99.3%  
60 4% 98%  
61 8% 94%  
62 14% 87%  
63 17% 73%  
64 23% 56% Median
65 18% 33% Last Result
66 10% 15%  
67 4% 5%  
68 1.2% 1.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100% Last Result
54 1.0% 99.7%  
55 3% 98.7%  
56 8% 96%  
57 11% 88%  
58 18% 78%  
59 23% 60% Median
60 17% 37%  
61 10% 20%  
62 6% 10%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.5%  
47 5% 98%  
48 9% 93%  
49 16% 84%  
50 19% 68% Median
51 20% 49% Majority
52 15% 29%  
53 7% 14%  
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 5% 96%  
48 10% 91%  
49 17% 81%  
50 18% 64% Median
51 18% 46% Majority
52 16% 28%  
53 7% 12%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.1% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.6%  
42 4% 98%  
43 8% 94%  
44 17% 86%  
45 19% 69% Last Result, Median
46 18% 50%  
47 16% 31%  
48 8% 16%  
49 5% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.0% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 8% 93%  
42 12% 84%  
43 21% 72%  
44 19% 52% Median
45 16% 33%  
46 10% 17%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.2%  
36 7% 96%  
37 13% 89%  
38 19% 77%  
39 22% 57% Median
40 15% 36%  
41 12% 20%  
42 5% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 1.1% 99.5%  
32 2% 98%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 12% 86%  
36 18% 73%  
37 20% 55% Median
38 19% 34%  
39 9% 15%  
40 4% 7%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
30 2% 99.4%  
31 6% 97%  
32 12% 92%  
33 21% 80%  
34 22% 59% Median
35 16% 37%  
36 12% 20%  
37 5% 8%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 8% 91%  
29 14% 83%  
30 27% 69% Median
31 20% 42%  
32 11% 22%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.9% 1.0%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 8% 97%  
24 14% 89%  
25 29% 75% Median
26 22% 46%  
27 12% 24%  
28 8% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.9% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations