Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 3–7 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.9% 28.1–31.8% 27.6–32.3% 27.1–32.8% 26.3–33.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.8% 17.3–20.5% 16.9–20.9% 16.5–21.4% 15.8–22.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 18–21 18–22 16–23 16–24
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.3% 99.7%  
30 5% 98%  
31 10% 93%  
32 20% 84%  
33 23% 63% Median
34 18% 40% Last Result
35 12% 22%  
36 7% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 10% 96%  
24 15% 86%  
25 26% 71% Median
26 24% 45%  
27 12% 21%  
28 6% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 3% 100%  
17 2% 97%  
18 21% 96%  
19 26% 75% Median
20 9% 48%  
21 32% 39%  
22 4% 7%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.2% 100%  
8 10% 98.8%  
9 30% 88%  
10 36% 59% Median
11 17% 23%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 17% 98%  
8 38% 80% Median
9 30% 42%  
10 10% 12% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 12% 91%  
5 49% 79% Median
6 26% 30%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 78 100% 76–81 75–82 75–83 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–66 60–66 60–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 56–61 55–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 88% 50–55 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 34% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 1.4% 44–49 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.4% 42–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–41 34–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 27–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 2% 99.7%  
75 4% 98%  
76 12% 94%  
77 21% 82% Median
78 25% 61%  
79 14% 36% Last Result
80 11% 22%  
81 5% 11%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 1.2% 1.4%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 5% 98%  
61 10% 93%  
62 19% 83%  
63 18% 64% Median
64 22% 46%  
65 12% 24% Last Result
66 9% 13%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 0.9%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
54 2% 99.5%  
55 4% 98%  
56 10% 94%  
57 18% 84%  
58 19% 66% Median
59 17% 46%  
60 13% 30%  
61 10% 17%  
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 1.2% 99.8%  
49 4% 98.6%  
50 7% 95%  
51 13% 88% Majority
52 18% 75% Median
53 24% 58%  
54 15% 34%  
55 9% 19%  
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.9% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 1.4% 99.0%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 94%  
48 11% 88%  
49 20% 77% Median
50 23% 57%  
51 17% 34% Majority
52 9% 17%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.5%  
42 2% 98.5%  
43 5% 96%  
44 9% 91%  
45 17% 83%  
46 19% 66% Median
47 21% 47%  
48 12% 25%  
49 8% 13%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 1.4% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 7% 97%  
43 11% 90%  
44 19% 79% Median
45 21% 60% Last Result
46 18% 38%  
47 10% 20%  
48 6% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.7%  
38 4% 98%  
39 8% 95%  
40 17% 86%  
41 19% 70% Median
42 24% 51%  
43 12% 27%  
44 9% 15% Last Result
45 4% 6%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 1.4% 99.1%  
34 3% 98%  
35 7% 95%  
36 9% 88%  
37 20% 79%  
38 19% 59% Median
39 19% 40%  
40 10% 21%  
41 7% 10%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
30 3% 99.0%  
31 8% 96%  
32 13% 88%  
33 22% 75% Median
34 22% 53%  
35 17% 31%  
36 8% 15%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 96%  
30 6% 93%  
31 12% 87%  
32 17% 75% Median
33 21% 59%  
34 18% 38%  
35 13% 20%  
36 5% 7%  
37 1.5% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 5% 98%  
26 13% 93%  
27 19% 80% Median
28 22% 61%  
29 19% 39%  
30 13% 20%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations