Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 5–13 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 26–30 25–31 24–32 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 16–22 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–5 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 6% 97%  
26 13% 90%  
27 17% 77%  
28 22% 60% Median
29 16% 38%  
30 13% 22%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 1.0%  
34 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100% Last Result
20 2% 99.6%  
21 6% 98%  
22 12% 92%  
23 20% 80%  
24 20% 60% Median
25 20% 40%  
26 12% 20%  
27 6% 9%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 4% 98.7%  
17 13% 94%  
18 23% 82%  
19 25% 59% Median
20 19% 34%  
21 9% 15%  
22 4% 6%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 6% 98%  
16 16% 92%  
17 23% 77%  
18 24% 53% Median
19 17% 29%  
20 8% 12%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 5% 99.6%  
8 24% 94%  
9 32% 70% Median
10 26% 38% Last Result
11 9% 11%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 6% 51% Median
5 35% 45%  
6 9% 10%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 71 100% 67–75 66–75 66–76 64–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 94% 51–58 50–59 50–59 48–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 72% 49–55 48–56 47–57 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 6% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 2% 42–49 41–50 41–50 39–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 36–43 36–44 35–44 33–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–36 30–37 29–37 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 27–34 27–35 26–35 25–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 31 0% 27–34 26–35 26–35 24–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 25–31 24–32 23–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 99.0%  
66 3% 98%  
67 6% 95%  
68 8% 89%  
69 13% 81%  
70 14% 68%  
71 11% 54% Median
72 12% 43%  
73 11% 31%  
74 9% 20%  
75 7% 10%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.8% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.2% 99.1%  
50 4% 98%  
51 5% 94% Majority
52 8% 89%  
53 14% 81%  
54 15% 67%  
55 16% 53%  
56 14% 36% Median
57 11% 22%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 5% 97%  
49 8% 92%  
50 11% 84%  
51 15% 72% Majority
52 14% 57% Median
53 15% 43% Last Result
54 11% 28%  
55 10% 17%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 9% 92%  
45 13% 84%  
46 16% 71%  
47 15% 55% Median
48 15% 40%  
49 11% 25%  
50 8% 14%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 1.5% 2%  
53 0.7% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 1.5% 99.1%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 10% 88%  
44 13% 78%  
45 14% 65%  
46 15% 52%  
47 14% 36% Median
48 11% 22%  
49 6% 11%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.4% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 4% 97%  
40 8% 93%  
41 11% 85%  
42 18% 75%  
43 17% 56% Median
44 15% 39%  
45 10% 25% Last Result
46 8% 14%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 1.2% 99.4%  
35 3% 98%  
36 6% 96%  
37 10% 89%  
38 13% 79%  
39 12% 66%  
40 13% 54%  
41 15% 40% Median
42 11% 25%  
43 8% 14%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.2% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 7% 95%  
35 11% 89%  
36 17% 78%  
37 18% 61% Median
38 18% 43%  
39 11% 25%  
40 8% 14%  
41 5% 6%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 2% 98.9% Last Result
30 7% 97%  
31 13% 90%  
32 14% 77%  
33 20% 63% Median
34 16% 43%  
35 13% 28%  
36 10% 15%  
37 3% 5%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 3% 98%  
27 6% 95%  
28 13% 89%  
29 10% 75%  
30 14% 66%  
31 13% 52%  
32 13% 39% Median
33 12% 26%  
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.5%  
26 4% 98%  
27 7% 94%  
28 12% 87%  
29 11% 76%  
30 14% 64%  
31 14% 51%  
32 10% 36% Median
33 13% 26%  
34 7% 13%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 6% 97%  
26 12% 91%  
27 17% 79%  
28 23% 61% Median
29 15% 38%  
30 13% 23%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations