Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–16 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.1% 30.3–34.0% 29.7–34.6% 29.3–35.1% 28.4–36.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 34–40 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.9% 99.8%  
33 3% 98.9%  
34 7% 96% Last Result
35 11% 89%  
36 17% 78%  
37 23% 61% Median
38 17% 38%  
39 10% 21%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.9% 1.2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 16% 92%  
19 23% 76% Last Result
20 25% 52% Median
21 16% 28%  
22 8% 12%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 8% 98%  
17 18% 91%  
18 23% 72% Median
19 27% 49%  
20 14% 22%  
21 6% 9%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 7% 98%  
14 18% 91%  
15 28% 73% Median
16 26% 45%  
17 13% 19%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.2% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 22% 96%  
8 40% 74% Median
9 24% 34%  
10 8% 10% Last Result
11 1.3% 1.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 19% 52% Median
5 29% 33%  
6 4% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 72–78 72–79 71–79 69–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–62 55–63 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.7% 54–60 53–61 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 98.9% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 11% 45–51 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.6% 42–48 41–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 37–44 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 38 0% 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 29 0% 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–31 23–33
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 24–29 24–30 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.5% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.4%  
71 3% 98%  
72 9% 95%  
73 13% 86%  
74 16% 73%  
75 14% 57% Median
76 17% 43%  
77 10% 26%  
78 7% 16%  
79 7% 9% Last Result
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 1.1% 99.6%  
55 4% 98.6%  
56 7% 95%  
57 11% 88%  
58 14% 76%  
59 17% 62%  
60 19% 45%  
61 15% 26% Median
62 6% 11%  
63 4% 5%  
64 1.1% 1.5%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.8% 99.7% Majority
52 2% 99.0%  
53 5% 97% Last Result
54 8% 92%  
55 16% 84%  
56 18% 68%  
57 17% 50% Median
58 13% 33%  
59 10% 20%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.5% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.9% Majority
52 5% 96%  
53 11% 91%  
54 15% 80%  
55 16% 65% Median
56 18% 50%  
57 15% 31%  
58 8% 16%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 1.0% 1.2%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.7%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 5% 97%  
45 12% 92%  
46 14% 80%  
47 13% 67%  
48 18% 54%  
49 15% 36% Median
50 10% 21%  
51 7% 11% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 1.2% 1.5%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 6% 95%  
43 10% 89%  
44 17% 79% Last Result
45 19% 62% Median
46 17% 42%  
47 10% 25%  
48 9% 15%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.7%  
36 2% 98%  
37 6% 96%  
38 10% 90%  
39 13% 79%  
40 15% 67%  
41 18% 52%  
42 12% 33% Median
43 11% 21%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.9% 1.3%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.6%  
35 3% 98.6%  
36 7% 96%  
37 12% 89%  
38 13% 77%  
39 13% 64%  
40 16% 51%  
41 14% 35% Median
42 11% 21%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.0% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.0%  
35 7% 97%  
36 12% 90%  
37 19% 78%  
38 19% 60% Median
39 16% 41%  
40 13% 24%  
41 7% 11%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.0% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 4% 97%  
26 8% 93%  
27 13% 85%  
28 13% 72%  
29 16% 59%  
30 14% 44% Median
31 13% 29%  
32 9% 16%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.4%  
25 7% 97%  
26 15% 90%  
27 20% 75%  
28 22% 56% Median
29 17% 34% Last Result
30 10% 17%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 8% 97%  
25 17% 89%  
26 21% 72% Median
27 22% 51%  
28 15% 29%  
29 9% 14%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.0% 1.4%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations