Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 12–17 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.8% | 22.9–27.3% | 22.5–27.8% | 21.7–28.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.8% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.5–26.7% | 20.8–27.5% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.3–16.9% | 13.0–17.3% | 12.4–18.0% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 29 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 7% | 97% | |
| 27 | 14% | 91% | |
| 28 | 21% | 77% | |
| 29 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 17% | 33% | |
| 31 | 10% | 16% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 25 | 10% | 96% | |
| 26 | 16% | 86% | |
| 27 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 28 | 22% | 47% | |
| 29 | 15% | 25% | |
| 30 | 7% | 11% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 8% | 98% | |
| 16 | 20% | 90% | |
| 17 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 18 | 24% | 44% | |
| 19 | 13% | 20% | |
| 20 | 5% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 10% | 98% | |
| 15 | 22% | 88% | |
| 16 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 17 | 28% | 41% | |
| 18 | 10% | 14% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 22% | 93% | Last Result |
| 11 | 31% | 72% | Median |
| 12 | 25% | 40% | |
| 13 | 13% | 16% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 2% | 4% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 79 | 73 | 100% | 71–76 | 70–76 | 70–77 | 68–78 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 56 | 99.7% | 54–59 | 53–59 | 52–60 | 51–61 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 56 | 99.8% | 54–59 | 53–59 | 52–60 | 51–61 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 46 | 0.9% | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 45 | 0.1% | 42–47 | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 45 | 45 | 0.1% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–48 | 40–50 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 40 | 0% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 40 | 0% | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 39 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 28 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 28 | 0% | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 29 | 0% | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–32 | 24–33 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98% | |
| 71 | 7% | 94% | |
| 72 | 16% | 87% | |
| 73 | 23% | 71% | Median |
| 74 | 17% | 48% | |
| 75 | 19% | 31% | |
| 76 | 8% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 54 | 10% | 91% | |
| 55 | 18% | 81% | |
| 56 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 57 | 19% | 44% | |
| 58 | 14% | 25% | |
| 59 | 7% | 10% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 52 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 6% | 97% | |
| 54 | 10% | 91% | |
| 55 | 18% | 82% | |
| 56 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 57 | 19% | 44% | |
| 58 | 14% | 25% | |
| 59 | 7% | 10% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 11% | 90% | |
| 45 | 20% | 80% | |
| 46 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 17% | 41% | |
| 48 | 15% | 24% | |
| 49 | 6% | 10% | |
| 50 | 3% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 8% | 95% | |
| 43 | 14% | 87% | |
| 44 | 18% | 73% | Median |
| 45 | 21% | 55% | |
| 46 | 17% | 34% | |
| 47 | 10% | 17% | |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 42 | 8% | 95% | |
| 43 | 14% | 86% | |
| 44 | 18% | 73% | Median |
| 45 | 21% | 55% | Last Result |
| 46 | 17% | 34% | |
| 47 | 10% | 17% | |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 12% | 91% | |
| 39 | 18% | 79% | |
| 40 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 40% | |
| 42 | 12% | 22% | |
| 43 | 6% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 12% | 91% | |
| 39 | 18% | 79% | |
| 40 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 41 | 17% | 39% | |
| 42 | 12% | 22% | |
| 43 | 6% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 9% | 96% | |
| 37 | 14% | 87% | |
| 38 | 19% | 72% | Median |
| 39 | 21% | 53% | |
| 40 | 14% | 32% | |
| 41 | 12% | 18% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 8% | 97% | |
| 27 | 16% | 89% | |
| 28 | 24% | 74% | Median |
| 29 | 21% | 50% | |
| 30 | 16% | 29% | |
| 31 | 9% | 13% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 8% | 97% | |
| 27 | 16% | 89% | |
| 28 | 24% | 73% | Median |
| 29 | 21% | 50% | |
| 30 | 16% | 29% | |
| 31 | 9% | 13% | |
| 32 | 3% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 6% | 97% | |
| 27 | 14% | 91% | |
| 28 | 21% | 77% | |
| 29 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 30 | 17% | 33% | |
| 31 | 10% | 16% | |
| 32 | 4% | 6% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Emor
- Commissioner(s): BNS and Postimees
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1058
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.67%