Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–24 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.0% 28.2–31.9% 27.7–32.4% 27.2–32.9% 26.4–33.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.0–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.2–14.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 23–27 22–28 21–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 11 10–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.6%  
30 6% 98%  
31 11% 92%  
32 19% 80%  
33 22% 62% Median
34 17% 40% Last Result
35 12% 23%  
36 6% 11%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.9% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 6% 97%  
23 16% 92%  
24 23% 76%  
25 18% 53% Median
26 21% 34%  
27 8% 13%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.0% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.1%  
17 15% 94%  
18 22% 79%  
19 27% 56% Median
20 16% 29%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 100%  
9 6% 99.5%  
10 23% 94%  
11 30% 71% Median
12 28% 41%  
13 10% 13%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.1% 100%  
7 12% 98.8%  
8 33% 87%  
9 32% 54% Median
10 18% 23% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 17% 89%  
5 49% 72% Median
6 20% 23%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–79 74–81 73–81 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–65 59–65 59–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 55–61 54–61 54–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 74% 49–54 49–55 48–56 47–58
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 48 12% 45–51 44–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 40–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0.1% 41–46 40–47 40–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–44 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–36 26–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.8% 99.8%  
73 4% 98.9%  
74 9% 95%  
75 16% 86%  
76 20% 70%  
77 20% 49% Median
78 14% 29%  
79 7% 15% Last Result
80 3% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.4% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 1.2% 99.0%  
59 6% 98%  
60 9% 92%  
61 13% 83%  
62 25% 69%  
63 14% 44% Median
64 15% 31%  
65 12% 15% Last Result
66 3% 4%  
67 0.7% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.7% Last Result
54 4% 98.6%  
55 8% 95%  
56 12% 87%  
57 22% 75%  
58 16% 53% Median
59 16% 37%  
60 11% 21%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 4%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 1.0% 99.7%  
48 3% 98.7%  
49 9% 95%  
50 12% 86%  
51 17% 74% Majority
52 21% 58% Median
53 15% 36%  
54 12% 21%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 4%  
57 1.0% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.1%  
44 4% 98%  
45 7% 94%  
46 11% 87%  
47 14% 76%  
48 20% 62%  
49 17% 42% Median
50 13% 25%  
51 8% 12% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.9% 1.1%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.4%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 10% 91%  
45 14% 81%  
46 20% 66%  
47 18% 47% Median
48 14% 29%  
49 8% 15%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.4% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.6%  
40 6% 98%  
41 7% 92%  
42 17% 85%  
43 18% 67%  
44 17% 49% Median
45 16% 32% Last Result
46 9% 15%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 4% 99.0%  
39 7% 95%  
40 16% 88%  
41 19% 72%  
42 19% 53% Median
43 14% 35%  
44 11% 21% Last Result
45 6% 10%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.5%  
33 2% 98.7%  
34 4% 96%  
35 8% 92%  
36 13% 85%  
37 16% 72%  
38 22% 56% Median
39 15% 34%  
40 11% 19%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.3% 99.7% Last Result
30 4% 98%  
31 10% 94%  
32 17% 84%  
33 19% 67%  
34 20% 48% Median
35 14% 28%  
36 8% 13%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.9% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.6%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 3% 97%  
29 6% 94%  
30 11% 88%  
31 15% 77%  
32 21% 62%  
33 19% 41% Median
34 12% 22%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.1%  
25 8% 96%  
26 17% 87%  
27 22% 70%  
28 21% 48% Median
29 15% 26%  
30 7% 11%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.7% 0.9%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations