Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25–31 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.9% 11.0–16.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–33 28–34 28–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 21–26 21–26 20–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–22
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 5% 98%  
29 16% 94%  
30 17% 77%  
31 16% 61% Median
32 17% 45%  
33 19% 28%  
34 5% 9% Last Result
35 3% 4%  
36 0.9% 1.0%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100% Last Result
20 3% 99.5%  
21 9% 97%  
22 21% 88%  
23 17% 67%  
24 26% 50% Median
25 13% 25%  
26 7% 12%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 5% 98%  
17 19% 93%  
18 25% 74% Median
19 21% 49%  
20 16% 28%  
21 9% 12%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 3% 99.4%  
12 16% 97%  
13 20% 81%  
14 36% 61% Median
15 16% 25%  
16 7% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 25% 97%  
7 36% 72% Median
8 26% 36%  
9 9% 10%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 30% 95%  
7 36% 65% Median
8 22% 29%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 70–76 70–77 69–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 59–64 59–65 58–66 57–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.2% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 33% 47–52 47–53 46–53 45–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 28% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 45 0.2% 43–48 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 39–45 39–46 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 23–28 23–29 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 1.3% 99.8%  
70 6% 98%  
71 10% 92%  
72 22% 83%  
73 17% 60% Median
74 18% 43%  
75 16% 25%  
76 6% 9%  
77 3% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 4% 99.5%  
59 8% 96%  
60 13% 87%  
61 23% 74%  
62 15% 51% Median
63 18% 36%  
64 9% 18%  
65 6% 10% Last Result
66 3% 4%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 4% 99.2% Majority
52 10% 95%  
53 19% 85% Last Result
54 16% 67%  
55 20% 50% Median
56 9% 30%  
57 12% 21%  
58 7% 9%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 1.1% 99.6%  
46 3% 98.5%  
47 9% 95%  
48 12% 86%  
49 17% 75% Median
50 25% 57%  
51 16% 33% Majority
52 10% 16%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 1.0% 99.9%  
45 2% 98.8%  
46 7% 97%  
47 14% 90%  
48 14% 76%  
49 18% 62% Median
50 17% 45%  
51 16% 28% Majority
52 7% 12%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.2% 1.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 7% 97%  
43 10% 90%  
44 17% 81%  
45 21% 63% Median
46 14% 42%  
47 9% 28%  
48 15% 19%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0.9% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 1.0% 99.9%  
38 3% 98.9%  
39 11% 96%  
40 9% 85%  
41 17% 76%  
42 18% 58% Median
43 14% 41%  
44 14% 26%  
45 8% 13% Last Result
46 4% 5%  
47 0.8% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.5%  
35 7% 98%  
36 10% 91%  
37 18% 80%  
38 14% 63% Median
39 21% 48%  
40 12% 28%  
41 10% 16%  
42 5% 6%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.5%  
35 3% 97%  
36 20% 93%  
37 10% 74%  
38 21% 64% Median
39 19% 42%  
40 10% 23%  
41 10% 14%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.8% 1.1%  
44 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 3% 98.9%  
30 10% 95%  
31 12% 86%  
32 18% 73% Median
33 21% 55%  
34 15% 34%  
35 12% 18%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.8%  
27 2% 98.8%  
28 11% 96%  
29 16% 85% Last Result
30 21% 68%  
31 23% 47% Median
32 10% 24%  
33 8% 14%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.8% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 98%  
23 9% 97%  
24 20% 88%  
25 17% 68% Median
26 20% 50%  
27 17% 31%  
28 9% 14%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations