Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–7 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 20 19–22 18–23 18–23 17–24
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.8%  
24 5% 98.6%  
25 12% 94%  
26 23% 82%  
27 22% 59% Median
28 19% 37%  
29 11% 17%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.3% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.7%  
24 6% 98%  
25 14% 92%  
26 23% 79%  
27 23% 55% Median
28 17% 32%  
29 10% 15%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 1.2% 99.5%  
18 8% 98%  
19 13% 90%  
20 30% 77% Median
21 31% 47%  
22 8% 16%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 5% 99.5%  
11 20% 95%  
12 31% 75% Median
13 27% 44%  
14 13% 17%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 6% 99.7%  
7 27% 94%  
8 45% 67% Median
9 17% 23%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.5%  
6 37% 90%  
7 37% 54% Median
8 14% 16%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 72–76 71–77 71–77 70–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–65 57–67
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 55 99.3% 53–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 97% 52–56 51–57 50–57 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 47 4% 45–49 44–50 44–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 47 4% 45–50 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 42 0% 39–44 38–44 38–45 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 34 0% 31–36 31–36 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 1.2% 99.7%  
71 4% 98%  
72 11% 95%  
73 20% 84%  
74 21% 64% Median
75 24% 43%  
76 12% 19%  
77 5% 7%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.9% 99.8%  
58 2% 98.9%  
59 5% 97%  
60 16% 91%  
61 25% 76%  
62 20% 50% Median
63 15% 30%  
64 10% 15%  
65 4% 6% Last Result
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.3% Majority
52 5% 97%  
53 11% 93%  
54 20% 81%  
55 21% 61% Median
56 18% 40%  
57 13% 22% Last Result
58 6% 9%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.8% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 5% 97% Majority
52 16% 92%  
53 22% 75% Last Result
54 22% 53% Median
55 14% 31%  
56 9% 17%  
57 6% 8%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 4% 98%  
45 10% 94% Last Result
46 18% 84%  
47 25% 65% Median
48 18% 40%  
49 12% 22%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 1.0% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.6%  
44 4% 98%  
45 10% 94%  
46 17% 84%  
47 20% 66% Median
48 18% 46%  
49 15% 28%  
50 8% 12%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 1.1% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.6%  
38 4% 98%  
39 7% 95%  
40 15% 88%  
41 22% 73%  
42 25% 51% Median
43 15% 26%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.1% 1.5%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.1%  
32 5% 96%  
33 10% 91%  
34 19% 81%  
35 26% 63% Median
36 21% 36%  
37 10% 16%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.0% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 5% 97%  
33 12% 92%  
34 22% 80%  
35 24% 58% Median
36 17% 34%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
30 4% 98.8%  
31 9% 95%  
32 16% 86%  
33 24% 71%  
34 22% 47% Median
35 13% 25%  
36 8% 12%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.9% 1.2%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.8%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 8% 96%  
32 15% 88%  
33 20% 73%  
34 23% 53% Median
35 19% 30%  
36 7% 11%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.0% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.4% 99.6%  
24 5% 98%  
25 10% 93%  
26 19% 83%  
27 27% 65% Median
28 22% 38%  
29 10% 15%  
30 4% 5%  
31 1.0% 1.3%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations