Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 8–13 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–28.0% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–23.9% 18.1–24.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.4% 9.3–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.7–12.5% 8.1–13.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 26–30 25–30 25–31 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 21–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.5%  
25 8% 98%  
26 12% 90%  
27 25% 78%  
28 22% 53% Median
29 14% 31%  
30 12% 17%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 6% 98%  
24 10% 92%  
25 15% 82%  
26 28% 67% Median
27 21% 39%  
28 12% 17%  
29 4% 6%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 2% 98%  
21 23% 96%  
22 19% 73%  
23 26% 53% Median
24 12% 28%  
25 9% 15%  
26 5% 6% Last Result
27 0.7% 0.9%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.1% 100%  
8 12% 98.9%  
9 29% 87%  
10 30% 58% Median
11 20% 28%  
12 7% 8%  
13 0.7% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 20% 97%  
9 26% 77%  
10 37% 52% Last Result, Median
11 12% 15%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 6% 97%  
5 49% 91% Median
6 31% 42%  
7 9% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 74–79 73–79 73–80 72–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–62 56–62 55–63 54–64
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 54 96% 51–56 51–57 50–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 96% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 44% 48–53 47–54 47–54 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 48 20% 46–51 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 31–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–38 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 33 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 27–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–34 30–35 29–36 28–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.9% 99.8%  
73 4% 99.0%  
74 6% 95%  
75 22% 88%  
76 19% 66%  
77 20% 48% Median
78 14% 27%  
79 8% 13% Last Result
80 3% 5%  
81 0.9% 1.5%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 3% 99.2%  
56 4% 96%  
57 11% 92%  
58 22% 82%  
59 20% 59% Median
60 18% 39%  
61 10% 21%  
62 8% 11%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.9% 99.5%  
50 3% 98.5%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 10% 89%  
53 19% 79%  
54 15% 59% Median
55 22% 44%  
56 12% 22%  
57 5% 10% Last Result
58 4% 5%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.7%  
50 3% 98%  
51 9% 96% Majority
52 15% 87%  
53 17% 72% Last Result
54 21% 55% Median
55 15% 34%  
56 12% 19%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.7%  
47 7% 98.6%  
48 5% 92%  
49 18% 86%  
50 24% 68%  
51 15% 44% Median, Majority
52 16% 30%  
53 8% 14%  
54 5% 7%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.6%  
45 3% 98.7% Last Result
46 10% 96%  
47 13% 86%  
48 25% 73%  
49 10% 48% Median
50 18% 38%  
51 13% 20% Majority
52 4% 7%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.3%  
39 5% 98%  
40 11% 93%  
41 16% 82%  
42 12% 66%  
43 25% 54% Median
44 10% 29%  
45 15% 19%  
46 3% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 99.4%  
33 0.8% 98.9%  
34 2% 98%  
35 8% 96%  
36 23% 88%  
37 16% 65%  
38 17% 49% Median
39 20% 32%  
40 8% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.5%  
34 5% 98%  
35 16% 93%  
36 15% 77%  
37 17% 62%  
38 20% 45% Median
39 12% 25%  
40 9% 13%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.0% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.4%  
32 3% 97%  
33 9% 94%  
34 13% 85%  
35 23% 72%  
36 17% 49% Median
37 19% 32%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.2%  
29 2% 98.8%  
30 6% 97%  
31 8% 91%  
32 21% 83%  
33 23% 62% Median
34 17% 39%  
35 13% 22%  
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.7%  
29 3% 98.5%  
30 7% 96%  
31 30% 89%  
32 22% 59%  
33 14% 37% Median
34 13% 23%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations