Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 6–15 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 11% 93%  
26 20% 82%  
27 25% 63% Median
28 20% 38%  
29 11% 18%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 8% 97%  
23 19% 89%  
24 22% 70% Median
25 25% 48%  
26 14% 24%  
27 7% 10%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 8% 98%  
17 18% 90%  
18 26% 72% Median
19 25% 46%  
20 14% 22%  
21 6% 7%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 12% 97%  
16 25% 85%  
17 27% 60% Median
18 21% 34%  
19 9% 13%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 10% 99.2%  
7 36% 89%  
8 34% 52% Median
9 15% 18%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.5% 99.6%  
5 9% 99.1%  
6 26% 90%  
7 52% 63% Median
8 10% 11%  
9 1.2% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 68–72 67–73 66–73 65–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–61 56–62 56–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 69% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 50% 48–53 47–54 47–54 46–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 45 0.4% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 41 0% 39–44 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 33 0% 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–35 26–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 7% 97%  
68 13% 90%  
69 21% 78% Median
70 21% 57%  
71 19% 35%  
72 10% 16%  
73 5% 7%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.3%  
56 6% 98%  
57 12% 92%  
58 16% 80%  
59 24% 64% Median
60 19% 40%  
61 11% 21%  
62 6% 9%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.7% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.3% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 9% 94%  
50 16% 85%  
51 20% 69% Median, Majority
52 22% 49%  
53 14% 27% Last Result
54 8% 13%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 5% 98%  
48 9% 93%  
49 16% 85%  
50 18% 68% Median
51 23% 50% Majority
52 13% 27%  
53 8% 14%  
54 4% 6%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 1.4% 99.5%  
42 5% 98%  
43 8% 94%  
44 17% 85%  
45 21% 69% Median
46 19% 47%  
47 14% 28%  
48 9% 14%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.0% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.0%  
40 7% 96%  
41 13% 89%  
42 18% 75% Median
43 21% 57%  
44 18% 35%  
45 9% 18% Last Result
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.4%  
38 3% 97%  
39 13% 94%  
40 10% 81%  
41 28% 70%  
42 15% 42% Median
43 17% 27%  
44 5% 10%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.7% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.8%  
31 3% 98.9%  
32 10% 96%  
33 10% 87%  
34 26% 77%  
35 17% 51% Median
36 20% 33%  
37 7% 13%  
38 5% 7%  
39 1.0% 1.5%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 7% 96%  
32 14% 89%  
33 20% 75%  
34 23% 55% Median
35 17% 32%  
36 9% 14%  
37 4% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.4%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.9% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.8%  
30 6% 96%  
31 14% 90%  
32 21% 75%  
33 23% 54% Median
34 18% 31%  
35 8% 13%  
36 4% 5%  
37 1.0% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 1.5% 99.4%  
28 5% 98%  
29 11% 93% Last Result
30 20% 82%  
31 21% 62% Median
32 21% 40%  
33 11% 20%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 4% 98%  
23 8% 93%  
24 17% 85%  
25 28% 67% Median
26 24% 39%  
27 11% 15%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations