Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 26.1% 24.4–27.9% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.1% 22.4–25.9% 21.9–26.4% 21.6–26.9% 20.8–27.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 15.4% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.4% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 29 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 24–30 23–30 22–31
Eesti Keskerakond 26 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.7%  
26 4% 98%  
27 11% 94%  
28 20% 83%  
29 22% 63% Median
30 19% 41%  
31 12% 22%  
32 6% 10%  
33 2% 3%  
34 1.0% 1.1%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 7% 97%  
25 15% 90%  
26 22% 75%  
27 21% 53% Median
28 18% 31%  
29 8% 13%  
30 4% 5%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 10% 97%  
15 24% 87%  
16 26% 63% Median
17 22% 37%  
18 11% 15%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 6% 99.1%  
13 19% 93%  
14 28% 74% Median
15 26% 45%  
16 14% 20%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.2% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 8% 99.0%  
9 27% 91%  
10 36% 63% Last Result, Median
11 20% 28%  
12 7% 8%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 0% 91%  
2 0% 91%  
3 0% 91%  
4 9% 91%  
5 47% 82% Median
6 28% 35%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 72 100% 69–74 69–76 68–77 67–78
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 57–64 57–64 55–65
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 56 99.6% 53–58 53–59 52–60 51–62
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 42% 47–53 47–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 45 0.7% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 43 0% 40–45 39–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 39–44 38–45 37–45 35–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 39 0% 37–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–35 25–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–33 27–34 26–34 25–36
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–31

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.8% 99.8%  
68 3% 99.0%  
69 7% 96%  
70 16% 90%  
71 18% 74%  
72 21% 56% Median
73 16% 34%  
74 8% 18%  
75 4% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 1.0% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.4%  
57 3% 98%  
58 8% 95%  
59 14% 87%  
60 17% 73%  
61 20% 56% Median
62 17% 35%  
63 12% 18%  
64 5% 7%  
65 1.4% 2% Last Result
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.6% Majority
52 3% 98.5%  
53 8% 95% Last Result
54 14% 87%  
55 18% 73%  
56 17% 55% Median
57 17% 37%  
58 10% 20%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.2% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 6% 95%  
48 10% 90%  
49 18% 80%  
50 20% 62% Median
51 18% 42% Majority
52 14% 24%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.9% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 5% 97%  
43 11% 92%  
44 19% 81%  
45 20% 62% Last Result, Median
46 16% 42%  
47 14% 26%  
48 6% 11%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.0% 99.7%  
39 4% 98.7%  
40 7% 95%  
41 15% 88%  
42 19% 72%  
43 19% 53% Median
44 17% 34%  
45 10% 17%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.9% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.3%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 8% 92%  
40 13% 83%  
41 20% 70%  
42 19% 50% Median
43 16% 31%  
44 9% 15%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 7% 97%  
37 10% 90%  
38 19% 80%  
39 23% 61% Median
40 14% 38%  
41 13% 24%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.5%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.2% 99.7%  
33 3% 98.5%  
34 8% 95%  
35 17% 87%  
36 19% 71%  
37 22% 51% Median
38 15% 30%  
39 8% 15%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 1.2% 99.3%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 6% 92%  
30 13% 85%  
31 19% 72%  
32 19% 53% Median
33 18% 34%  
34 9% 15%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.8% 99.7%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 4% 96%  
28 6% 93%  
29 10% 86%  
30 16% 77%  
31 23% 60% Median
32 19% 38%  
33 10% 19%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 13% 93%  
25 20% 80%  
26 24% 60% Median
27 19% 36%  
28 10% 17%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations