Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 16–21 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.7% 23.6–30.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.7–17.6% 14.3–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.4–10.8% 6.9–11.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 28–32 27–33 27–33 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 14–20 13–20
Eesti 200 0 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 5% 98.7%  
28 12% 94%  
29 28% 81%  
30 15% 53% Median
31 19% 38%  
32 13% 19%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.2% 2% Last Result
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100% Last Result
20 1.2% 99.8%  
21 4% 98.6%  
22 13% 94%  
23 24% 81%  
24 25% 57% Median
25 16% 32%  
26 8% 15%  
27 6% 7%  
28 0.8% 0.9%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 4% 99.4%  
15 14% 95%  
16 31% 81%  
17 23% 51% Median
18 18% 28%  
19 7% 10%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.6% 100%  
14 5% 99.3%  
15 12% 95%  
16 20% 82%  
17 37% 62% Median
18 15% 25%  
19 7% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 11% 98%  
8 31% 87%  
9 36% 56% Median
10 17% 19% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 8% 95%  
5 41% 86% Median
6 39% 45%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 70 100% 69–73 68–74 67–75 66–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–62 56–62 55–62 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 97% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 4% 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.7% 43–48 42–49 42–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 40 0% 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–38 32–38 31–39 29–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 31 0% 28–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.8% 99.9%  
67 3% 99.1%  
68 5% 96%  
69 31% 91%  
70 13% 60%  
71 21% 47% Median
72 12% 26%  
73 8% 14%  
74 4% 7%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.6%  
55 1.3% 98.7%  
56 9% 97%  
57 10% 88%  
58 17% 78%  
59 29% 61% Median
60 12% 33%  
61 8% 21%  
62 11% 13%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.9% 99.8%  
50 2% 98.9%  
51 8% 97% Majority
52 14% 89%  
53 28% 75% Last Result
54 13% 47% Median
55 14% 34%  
56 10% 20%  
57 6% 10%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.7% 1.4%  
60 0.6% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.2%  
44 7% 95%  
45 21% 87%  
46 17% 67%  
47 16% 50% Median
48 18% 34%  
49 8% 16%  
50 4% 7%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 1.5% 99.2%  
42 4% 98%  
43 9% 94%  
44 6% 85%  
45 16% 79%  
46 31% 62% Median
47 18% 32%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 5%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.6% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.4% 99.3%  
40 1.2% 98%  
41 7% 97%  
42 17% 90%  
43 11% 72%  
44 38% 62% Median
45 6% 24%  
46 9% 18%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.2% 99.8%  
37 5% 98.7%  
38 6% 94%  
39 10% 88%  
40 28% 77%  
41 22% 49% Median
42 16% 27%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.4% 2% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.1%  
36 7% 96%  
37 16% 89%  
38 30% 74%  
39 19% 43% Median
40 7% 25%  
41 10% 18%  
42 6% 8%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 0.6% 99.2%  
31 1.5% 98.5%  
32 5% 97%  
33 12% 92%  
34 15% 80%  
35 26% 65% Median
36 17% 39%  
37 12% 22%  
38 7% 10%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.1% Last Result
30 8% 96%  
31 13% 88%  
32 29% 75%  
33 21% 46% Median
34 13% 25%  
35 7% 12%  
36 3% 5%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 1.3% 99.7%  
26 1.4% 98%  
27 4% 97%  
28 8% 93%  
29 13% 85%  
30 14% 72%  
31 27% 58% Median
32 20% 31%  
33 7% 10%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.1%  
23 12% 95%  
24 11% 83%  
25 25% 72%  
26 22% 46% Median
27 16% 24%  
28 6% 8%  
29 1.5% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations