Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–27 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 24.6% 22.9–26.4% 22.4–26.9% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Reformierakond 34 24 22–26 22–27 22–28 20–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti 200 0 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 14% 97%  
25 14% 83%  
26 19% 69% Median
27 28% 49%  
28 8% 21%  
29 9% 14%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.3%  
22 12% 98%  
23 14% 86%  
24 29% 73% Median
25 15% 44%  
26 21% 29%  
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 1.5% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 12% 93%  
23 19% 81%  
24 30% 61% Median
25 18% 32%  
26 9% 14% Last Result
27 3% 4%  
28 0.8% 1.0%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 16% 97%  
10 25% 81%  
11 28% 56% Median
12 21% 27%  
13 5% 6%  
14 1.2% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 13% 97%  
8 34% 84%  
9 38% 50% Median
10 10% 12% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 21% 98%  
7 40% 76% Median
8 26% 37%  
9 9% 10%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–77 71–78 70–79
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 100% 56–60 55–61 55–62 53–63
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 58 100% 55–60 54–61 54–61 52–62
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 51 59% 48–53 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 50 46% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 10% 46–50 45–51 45–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 38–42 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 35–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 30–35 30–36 30–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 30–34 29–35 29–36 27–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 27–36

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.5%  
72 5% 97%  
73 18% 92%  
74 21% 74% Median
75 22% 53%  
76 21% 31%  
77 6% 10%  
78 4% 4%  
79 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 1.4% 99.3%  
55 6% 98%  
56 14% 92%  
57 20% 79% Median
58 18% 59%  
59 20% 41%  
60 12% 20%  
61 5% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.1%  
54 5% 98%  
55 13% 93%  
56 12% 80%  
57 18% 68% Last Result, Median
58 20% 50%  
59 16% 31%  
60 6% 14%  
61 8% 9%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.0%  
48 7% 96%  
49 16% 89%  
50 15% 73% Median
51 26% 59% Majority
52 14% 32%  
53 11% 19% Last Result
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
46 2% 99.4%  
47 7% 98%  
48 11% 91%  
49 16% 80%  
50 17% 64% Median
51 18% 46% Majority
52 17% 28%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 4% 98%  
46 9% 94%  
47 22% 85%  
48 19% 63% Median
49 15% 43%  
50 19% 29%  
51 6% 10% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 1.0% 1.2%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.4%  
37 7% 98%  
38 8% 91%  
39 26% 83%  
40 12% 57% Median
41 22% 45%  
42 15% 23%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 2% 99.7%  
36 4% 97%  
37 6% 93%  
38 19% 87%  
39 15% 68%  
40 21% 52% Median
41 14% 31%  
42 12% 17%  
43 4% 5%  
44 1.1% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100% Last Result
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.2%  
32 5% 97%  
33 18% 91%  
34 14% 73%  
35 20% 59% Median
36 24% 39%  
37 8% 15%  
38 4% 7%  
39 3% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.5%  
30 9% 98.6%  
31 13% 89%  
32 17% 76%  
33 24% 59% Median
34 14% 35%  
35 15% 22%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 1.4% 99.4%  
29 4% 98%  
30 9% 94%  
31 19% 85%  
32 15% 66%  
33 29% 51% Median
34 12% 22%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.8% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 6% 97%  
30 18% 91%  
31 21% 73% Median
32 19% 52%  
33 21% 33%  
34 7% 12%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.9% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations