Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 September–5 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.7–23.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 29 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Eesti Reformierakond 34 24 23–27 22–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 20–23 19–23 18–24 18–25
Eesti 200 0 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.8%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 7% 93%  
28 19% 85%  
29 28% 67% Median
30 24% 39%  
31 8% 15%  
32 5% 7%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.6%  
22 7% 98%  
23 12% 91%  
24 34% 79% Median
25 19% 45%  
26 12% 26%  
27 9% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.8% 0.9%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 5% 96%  
20 20% 91%  
21 32% 71% Median
22 20% 38%  
23 13% 18%  
24 4% 5%  
25 1.1% 1.4%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 4% 99.6%  
11 23% 96%  
12 30% 73% Median
13 25% 43%  
14 13% 18%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 19% 98%  
7 29% 79% Median
8 39% 50%  
9 9% 11%  
10 1.4% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.7% 99.7%  
5 17% 99.0%  
6 34% 82% Median
7 37% 48%  
8 10% 11%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 75 100% 73–77 72–78 72–78 70–79
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 58–63 57–63 56–63 55–64
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 56 99.9% 54–59 54–59 53–60 51–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 54 95% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 50 50% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 0.8% 43–48 43–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 26–35
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–30 26–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.7% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 4% 98%  
73 15% 93%  
74 15% 78% Median
75 32% 63%  
76 15% 31%  
77 11% 16%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 4% 99.4%  
57 3% 96%  
58 5% 93%  
59 26% 87% Median
60 32% 62%  
61 10% 30%  
62 6% 20%  
63 12% 15%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9% Majority
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 3% 98.6%  
54 7% 96%  
55 14% 89%  
56 26% 76% Median
57 13% 50% Last Result
58 21% 36%  
59 12% 15%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.0%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.0% 99.8%  
50 3% 98.8%  
51 7% 95% Majority
52 12% 89%  
53 23% 76% Last Result, Median
54 28% 53%  
55 7% 25%  
56 10% 18%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
46 0.8% 99.1%  
47 6% 98%  
48 4% 92%  
49 25% 88%  
50 13% 63% Median
51 29% 50% Majority
52 10% 21%  
53 8% 11%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.2%  
43 9% 97%  
44 10% 89%  
45 20% 78% Median
46 26% 58%  
47 19% 32%  
48 6% 13%  
49 6% 8%  
50 1.4% 2%  
51 0.7% 0.8% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.1% 99.7%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 11% 96%  
37 20% 86% Median
38 15% 65%  
39 24% 50%  
40 14% 26%  
41 9% 13%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.0% 1.2%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 5% 99.0%  
34 8% 94%  
35 13% 85%  
36 20% 73% Median
37 24% 53%  
38 21% 29%  
39 5% 8%  
40 2% 3%  
41 1.5% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.8%  
31 4% 99.3%  
32 3% 95%  
33 11% 92%  
34 19% 81% Median
35 23% 62%  
36 18% 39%  
37 14% 21%  
38 5% 7%  
39 1.0% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.7%  
29 7% 98%  
30 10% 91%  
31 15% 81% Median
32 27% 66%  
33 22% 38%  
34 10% 17%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.3% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 4% 98%  
29 15% 95%  
30 23% 80% Median
31 20% 57%  
32 17% 37%  
33 9% 20%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.4%  
26 6% 96%  
27 18% 90%  
28 16% 73% Median
29 27% 57%  
30 20% 29%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations