Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 4–8 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 27 25–29 24–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.7%  
24 5% 98%  
25 12% 94%  
26 18% 82%  
27 22% 64% Median
28 20% 42%  
29 12% 21%  
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 6% 98%  
24 12% 93%  
25 21% 81%  
26 24% 59% Median
27 18% 35%  
28 10% 17%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.9%  
19 14% 94%  
20 23% 79%  
21 25% 56% Median
22 17% 31%  
23 9% 14%  
24 3% 5%  
25 0.9% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 4% 99.4%  
12 16% 95%  
13 28% 79%  
14 29% 51% Median
15 15% 22%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 10% 99.5%  
6 36% 89%  
7 36% 54% Median
8 15% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 10% 99.5%  
6 36% 89%  
7 38% 53% Median
8 13% 15%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 71–76 70–77 70–77 68–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–62 56–63 56–63 54–65
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 92% 51–56 50–57 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 89% 50–56 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 48 9% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 47 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 40 0% 38–43 37–44 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 1.3% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 6% 95%  
72 11% 88%  
73 17% 78%  
74 24% 61% Median
75 17% 36%  
76 12% 19%  
77 5% 7%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.1%  
56 4% 98%  
57 8% 93%  
58 15% 86%  
59 19% 71%  
60 17% 52% Median
61 17% 36%  
62 11% 19%  
63 5% 7%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 5% 97%  
51 10% 92% Majority
52 17% 82%  
53 18% 65%  
54 21% 47% Median
55 13% 26%  
56 8% 14%  
57 3% 5% Last Result
58 1.4% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.2% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 95%  
51 10% 89% Majority
52 16% 79%  
53 23% 63% Last Result, Median
54 16% 40%  
55 13% 24%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.0% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.8%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 7% 96%  
46 13% 88%  
47 17% 75%  
48 19% 58% Median
49 18% 39%  
50 12% 21%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 3% 4%  
53 0.8% 1.2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.4% 99.5%  
43 3% 98%  
44 8% 95%  
45 14% 87% Last Result
46 20% 73%  
47 18% 53% Median
48 17% 35%  
49 10% 18%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 5% 97%  
38 10% 93%  
39 14% 82%  
40 22% 68%  
41 19% 46% Median
42 15% 28%  
43 8% 13%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 6% 97%  
32 12% 91%  
33 19% 79%  
34 23% 61%  
35 17% 38% Median
36 12% 21%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.7%  
30 3% 98.8%  
31 7% 96%  
32 15% 89%  
33 19% 74%  
34 22% 55% Median
35 16% 33%  
36 10% 17%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.7%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 7% 96%  
32 14% 89%  
33 19% 75%  
34 21% 56% Median
35 18% 35%  
36 9% 16%  
37 5% 7%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.9% 99.6%  
29 3% 98.7% Last Result
30 9% 95%  
31 15% 87%  
32 22% 72%  
33 20% 50% Median
34 15% 30%  
35 9% 14%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 3% 98.9%  
25 10% 96%  
26 17% 86%  
27 21% 69%  
28 23% 48% Median
29 14% 25%  
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.8% 1.1%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations