Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–12 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.1% 24.1–29.5% 23.2–30.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 25 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 12 10–14 10–14 9–14 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 5% 98%  
28 11% 93%  
29 31% 82%  
30 19% 50% Median
31 14% 31%  
32 12% 17%  
33 2% 4%  
34 2% 2% Last Result
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 1.3% 99.9%  
21 5% 98.7%  
22 11% 94%  
23 10% 82%  
24 17% 73%  
25 31% 55% Median
26 20% 24%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.1% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 9% 97%  
20 18% 88%  
21 25% 70% Median
22 27% 45%  
23 11% 18%  
24 5% 7%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 10% 97%  
11 23% 87%  
12 39% 64% Median
13 13% 24%  
14 10% 11%  
15 0.7% 1.1%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 9% 99.6%  
7 33% 90%  
8 34% 57% Median
9 18% 23%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 0% 99.1%  
3 0% 99.1%  
4 0.9% 99.1%  
5 24% 98%  
6 45% 74% Median
7 25% 30%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 76 100% 73–77 72–78 72–78 70–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–62 56–63 56–63 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 95% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 73% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 65% 49–53 48–54 47–55 46–56
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.4% 43–48 42–48 41–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 41–46 41–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 30–40
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 34–38 33–38 32–39 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–32 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.5% 100%  
71 1.3% 99.5%  
72 4% 98%  
73 9% 94%  
74 11% 85%  
75 23% 74%  
76 28% 51% Median
77 16% 23%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.0% 2% Last Result
80 1.0% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 4% 99.2%  
57 7% 95%  
58 8% 88%  
59 11% 80%  
60 27% 69%  
61 17% 42% Median
62 16% 26%  
63 8% 10%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.6%  
50 4% 99.1%  
51 9% 95% Majority
52 8% 86%  
53 9% 79% Last Result
54 24% 70%  
55 25% 46% Median
56 11% 21%  
57 7% 10%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 3% 97%  
49 7% 94%  
50 14% 87%  
51 15% 73% Majority
52 22% 58% Median
53 26% 37%  
54 7% 11%  
55 3% 4%  
56 1.2% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.9% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.0%  
48 4% 96%  
49 7% 92%  
50 21% 85%  
51 28% 65% Median, Majority
52 20% 37%  
53 9% 17%  
54 5% 8%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 15% 87%  
45 17% 72% Last Result
46 21% 55% Median
47 19% 34%  
48 11% 15%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 3% 98.9%  
41 8% 96%  
42 20% 88%  
43 21% 68%  
44 15% 48% Median
45 16% 32%  
46 9% 16%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 7% 96%  
36 19% 89%  
37 25% 71%  
38 17% 46% Median
39 16% 29%  
40 7% 13%  
41 3% 6%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.7%  
31 1.5% 99.3%  
32 4% 98%  
33 13% 94%  
34 17% 81%  
35 29% 64% Median
36 14% 35%  
37 10% 21%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 4% 97%  
34 18% 93%  
35 26% 76%  
36 13% 50% Median
37 16% 37%  
38 17% 21%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.4%  
29 5% 98% Last Result
30 9% 92%  
31 15% 83%  
32 30% 68%  
33 20% 38% Median
34 11% 19%  
35 6% 8%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.3% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.5%  
27 17% 94%  
28 12% 78%  
29 30% 65% Median
30 17% 36%  
31 9% 19%  
32 9% 10%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations