Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 13–18 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 29 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–33
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.7%  
26 5% 98%  
27 14% 93%  
28 17% 79%  
29 28% 62% Median
30 14% 34%  
31 14% 20%  
32 4% 6%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 9% 97%  
24 17% 88%  
25 24% 71% Median
26 21% 47%  
27 16% 26%  
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 11% 96%  
18 24% 84%  
19 26% 60% Median
20 20% 34%  
21 10% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 11% 98%  
10 26% 88%  
11 36% 61% Median
12 18% 26%  
13 6% 7%  
14 0.9% 1.0%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 14% 98%  
8 36% 84% Median
9 33% 48%  
10 13% 16%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 17% 98%  
8 36% 80% Median
9 32% 45%  
10 10% 13% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 71–76 70–76 69–77
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 61–65 60–66 59–66 58–67
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 56 99.9% 54–59 53–59 53–60 52–61
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 53 54 98% 52–57 51–57 51–58 50–59
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 48 8% 46–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–47 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 42 0% 40–45 39–45 39–46 37–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 36 0% 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 34 0% 32–36 31–37 31–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.9% 99.8%  
70 4% 98.9%  
71 10% 95%  
72 16% 85%  
73 23% 69% Median
74 21% 46%  
75 16% 25%  
76 7% 9%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 6% 97%  
61 14% 91%  
62 19% 77% Median
63 21% 58%  
64 18% 37%  
65 12% 19% Last Result
66 5% 7%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.5%  
53 4% 98%  
54 8% 94%  
55 20% 86%  
56 18% 66% Median
57 20% 48% Last Result
58 15% 28%  
59 8% 13%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.1% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 1.4% 99.6%  
51 4% 98% Majority
52 10% 94%  
53 16% 84% Last Result
54 19% 68% Median
55 22% 49%  
56 14% 27%  
57 9% 13%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.0%  
45 6% 96% Last Result
46 13% 90%  
47 20% 77%  
48 20% 57% Median
49 17% 37%  
50 12% 20%  
51 6% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.5%  
41 4% 98%  
42 10% 94%  
43 16% 84%  
44 22% 68% Median
45 17% 46%  
46 16% 28%  
47 8% 12%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.8% 1.1%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 4% 98%  
40 11% 94%  
41 17% 83% Median
42 21% 67%  
43 20% 46%  
44 14% 26%  
45 7% 11%  
46 3% 5%  
47 0.9% 1.1%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.7%  
34 4% 98.7%  
35 13% 95%  
36 15% 82%  
37 19% 67% Median
38 21% 48%  
39 17% 27%  
40 6% 10%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.1% 1.4%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 8% 97%  
34 13% 89%  
35 19% 77% Median
36 23% 58%  
37 18% 34%  
38 10% 17%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.5% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 7% 98%  
32 16% 91%  
33 16% 75% Median
34 24% 59%  
35 21% 35%  
36 8% 15%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 5% 97%  
32 14% 92%  
33 21% 79% Median
34 21% 57%  
35 17% 37%  
36 12% 20%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.5% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.1%  
25 10% 96%  
26 18% 86%  
27 23% 68% Median
28 21% 45%  
29 15% 24%  
30 7% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations