Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 14–20 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 22.7% 21.2–24.3% 20.8–24.8% 20.5–25.2% 19.8–26.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.8% 19.3–22.3% 18.9–22.8% 18.6–23.2% 17.9–23.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.8% 16.5–19.3% 16.1–19.7% 15.8–20.1% 15.1–20.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.8% 14.6–17.3% 14.2–17.7% 13.9–18.0% 13.3–18.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.9% 7.0–9.0% 6.7–9.3% 6.5–9.5% 6.1–10.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 25 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26
Eesti Keskerakond 26 19 17–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Eesti 200 0 17 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0–4 0–5

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.4%  
23 10% 96%  
24 20% 86%  
25 27% 66% Median
26 21% 39%  
27 12% 18%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.1% 1.3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
20 5% 98.9%  
21 16% 94%  
22 24% 78%  
23 26% 54% Median
24 17% 28%  
25 8% 11%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 10% 98%  
18 21% 88%  
19 31% 67% Median
20 23% 36%  
21 10% 14%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.3% 100%  
14 4% 99.7%  
15 13% 96%  
16 24% 82%  
17 33% 58% Median
18 16% 25%  
19 7% 8%  
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 9% 99.3%  
9 30% 90%  
10 37% 60% Last Result, Median
11 18% 23%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 13% 99.2%  
7 36% 86% Median
8 38% 50%  
9 10% 12%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 3% 4%  
5 1.3% 1.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 67 100% 65–69 64–70 63–70 62–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 99.5% 53–57 52–58 52–59 51–60
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 22% 47–52 46–52 46–53 45–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 6% 46–50 45–51 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 44 0% 42–46 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 40–45 40–45 39–46 38–47
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–45 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 34–38 34–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 32 0% 30–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 33 0% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 6% 97%  
65 11% 91%  
66 23% 80%  
67 21% 57% Median
68 18% 36%  
69 12% 17%  
70 4% 5%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.3% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 12% 94%  
54 16% 83%  
55 19% 66% Median
56 22% 47%  
57 16% 25%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 4% 98%  
47 12% 94%  
48 18% 83%  
49 20% 65% Median
50 23% 45%  
51 12% 22% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 6% 97%  
46 15% 91%  
47 20% 76%  
48 22% 55% Median
49 16% 33%  
50 12% 18%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 1.5% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.6%  
41 4% 98%  
42 11% 94%  
43 17% 83%  
44 24% 67% Median
45 20% 43%  
46 14% 23%  
47 6% 9%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 1.3% 99.7%  
39 3% 98%  
40 10% 95%  
41 16% 86%  
42 21% 70% Median
43 25% 49%  
44 12% 24%  
45 8% 11%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.9% 1.1%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 6% 97%  
40 14% 91%  
41 21% 76%  
42 23% 55% Median
43 17% 33%  
44 10% 16%  
45 4% 5% Last Result
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.0% 99.8%  
33 3% 98.8%  
34 9% 95%  
35 17% 86%  
36 23% 69% Median
37 20% 46%  
38 16% 26%  
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.6%  
32 5% 98%  
33 13% 92%  
34 20% 79%  
35 24% 60% Median
36 18% 35%  
37 11% 17%  
38 4% 6%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.3% Last Result
30 9% 97%  
31 16% 88%  
32 25% 72%  
33 21% 47% Median
34 16% 26%  
35 7% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 7% 97%  
31 15% 90%  
32 22% 75% Median
33 25% 53%  
34 16% 28%  
35 8% 12%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.7%  
26 5% 98.6%  
27 13% 94%  
28 22% 81%  
29 25% 59% Median
30 19% 33%  
31 10% 14%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations