Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 20–25 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.8%  
23 4% 98.7%  
24 12% 95%  
25 19% 83%  
26 24% 63% Median
27 21% 39%  
28 11% 18%  
29 5% 7%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.6%  
22 7% 98%  
23 17% 91%  
24 21% 74%  
25 27% 53% Median
26 13% 26% Last Result
27 9% 13%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.7%  
19 7% 98% Last Result
20 15% 92%  
21 25% 76%  
22 23% 51% Median
23 18% 28%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.9%  
12 6% 99.0%  
13 20% 93%  
14 28% 73% Median
15 26% 46%  
16 14% 19%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 9% 99.4%  
7 33% 91%  
8 37% 58% Median
9 17% 21%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.9%  
5 9% 99.6%  
6 37% 91%  
7 36% 54% Median
8 15% 18%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 72 100% 70–74 69–75 69–76 68–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 99.5% 53–58 52–58 52–59 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 54 96% 52–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 51 53% 48–53 48–54 47–54 46–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 7% 45–50 45–51 44–51 43–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 1.1% 44–49 43–49 43–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 40 0% 38–43 38–43 37–44 36–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–38
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 33 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 26–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.0% 99.7%  
69 4% 98.7%  
70 9% 94%  
71 20% 86%  
72 21% 66%  
73 21% 45% Median
74 15% 24%  
75 6% 9%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 11% 94%  
54 16% 83%  
55 18% 67%  
56 21% 50% Median
57 16% 28%  
58 7% 12%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.1% 1.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.1%  
51 6% 96% Majority
52 13% 90%  
53 18% 77%  
54 23% 59%  
55 16% 37% Median
56 12% 21%  
57 6% 9% Last Result
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 1.1% 99.7%  
47 3% 98.7%  
48 8% 95%  
49 14% 88%  
50 20% 74%  
51 21% 53% Median, Majority
52 16% 32%  
53 10% 17%  
54 4% 6%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 1.1% 99.7%  
44 3% 98.6%  
45 8% 95%  
46 13% 87%  
47 20% 74%  
48 21% 54% Median
49 16% 32%  
50 10% 16%  
51 5% 7% Majority
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 5% 98%  
44 11% 93%  
45 17% 81% Last Result
46 22% 64%  
47 17% 42% Median
48 14% 25%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.9% 1.1% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.4% 99.7%  
37 3% 98%  
38 11% 95%  
39 14% 84%  
40 23% 71%  
41 19% 48% Median
42 16% 29%  
43 8% 13%  
44 4% 5%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 6% 97%  
37 12% 91%  
38 19% 79%  
39 24% 60%  
40 15% 36% Median
41 12% 21%  
42 6% 9%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 7% 97%  
32 13% 90%  
33 19% 77%  
34 23% 58% Median
35 17% 34%  
36 11% 17%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.2%  
30 7% 97%  
31 15% 90%  
32 20% 74%  
33 21% 55% Median
34 19% 34%  
35 9% 15%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 1.1% 99.7%  
28 4% 98.6%  
29 10% 95%  
30 19% 84%  
31 23% 65%  
32 18% 42% Median
33 14% 24%  
34 7% 10%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.1% 99.8%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 10% 95%  
27 19% 85%  
28 23% 66%  
29 22% 44% Last Result, Median
30 12% 22%  
31 7% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations